Hot topic based on high chat responses >70. If you've been paying attention to the Brad/Dan philosophy for identitying players over last 4 years.....He aint it.
Dallas didn’t sign Micah Parsons! And now have signed JPJ. Their division has been good and Dallas defense has been average! So , Dallas is not SB bound! They have not EVEN won their division. Forget 15-2 and our recent success!!!
This is the neighbor's grass is always greener argument -- until you buy the lot and have to take care of it yourself. Porter is a big nope for me -- break his contract with Pitt, hold out for camp and first 3 weeks of a season, doesn't like to tackle even though he is one of the biggest CBs. Sure, in 2030 you can look back and see if Porter's career was worth it, but right now he may well not work out. T Arnold did not work out for what I will call attitude problems. I hope Brad learned that a nonstop talker may well not be as good as he thinks he is. Give me someone who SHOWS how good he is, like the high priced names the Lions have already paid. As long as I am James Joycing here, Sheila was a competitive athlete with different background and life experiences from her dad. Patriots and Chiefs are unicorns with their QB and coaches. The other 30 teams are much like the Lions have been since going 0-16. MCDC was right, it is very hard to get to the SB, much less win it, as long-time Bills fans well remember.
Dallas makes a big trade almost every year and they still suck. I prefer the way Holmes builds a team through the draft and bargai FA shopping before the season starts. Dallas still has to sign JPJ to a new contract or they will lose him in FA and he wants 30M per year. He is not worth half of that IMO.
I think the buzz around JPJ was largely Pittsburgh fan nostalgia and his dad's name recognition. But if I'm to overpay for legacy players, I'd rather have Luther Elliss send over all of HIS kids, including the girls. We could restock the whole defense.
You’re not winning a bidding war with Dallas. Even if we offer the same draft capital I’m betting Dallas drafted ahead of Detroit. I also hear there’s no contract extension in place. I have a hard time seeing JPJ excelling on that Dallas defense as well.
I mean the Lions window certainly isn't closed but all these big contracts for their star drafted players mean these guys are moving on to their second contract and thus aging. Doesn't seem wise to leave a gapping whole that can let the rest of the team down when you have a favorable schedule, good talent and an opportunity. Dan famously said after the loss to 49ers in playoffs that you never know if you'll get her again. Leaving a big whole is going o hurt the chances of getting there this year.
I’m guessing Brad is very competitive and wants to win. He looks like it at draft time. I get that feeling that if this organization wasn’t trying to win, Dan would say see you later. He’s as big of a competitor as you will get. I don’t know them personally but they seem to care and want to win. JPJ is looking for no1 money. Is he worth it? I don’t think so. I’m gonna ride and die with this team as miserable as it can be.
JP would have been a quick bandaid on a gash needing about 20 stitches. But I can see the longer term risk of costs verses performance. I expect Young to torch the Lion's back end but it might not be enough to overcome the Lions "O" which seems to be getting ready to shift into a higher gear. Considering the state of the Panthers team after having lost so many starters, this is a must win for Detroit. An opportunity to not let slip by.
Thanks for this, Justin. Would be interested to see a piece on cap projections (assuming 8-10% cap increases year over year).
My understanding is that cutting Kerby in the Spring would result ultimately in team-savings -- but only because the cost to keep him on the team would be fairly high.
They have almost $100M in projected cap savings next year, how does the picture change in 2028 and 2029?
I did one over the summer, where they had the most cap space tied up in 2029 and 2030. That was ahead of free agency. Everything has changed and I don't have the time to dig into all 32 teams again during the season. An offseason project.
I did some poking around (meaning I fired up Gemini), and it looks like they get realy squeezed in 2029, where 11 players take up $312M of cap. I'm sure they'll move a lot of that money around. (That assumes market-level deals for Branch and LaPorta) But yeah, a JPJ long-term deal would basically eliminate any remaining flexibility.
Yeah, it's complicated, even from a single-team view, because of option bonus and void years. And I think it's important to compare it to other teams. Perspective with the numbers is important.
I’m not down with JPP cause he isn’t, or wasn’t, that interested in tackling. For me if a corner isn’t that motivated as a tackler then he better be Revis in coverage. Folks are gonna hate it given the recent draft history but that’s a spot that begs to be filled in the draft. Giving the team 4-5 cost controlled years, as one would with a QB-DE. Particularly for a team already possessing high end contracts
Maybe it's cope, but when did this guy become prime Jalen Ramsey? He wants PS2 (or more) money, and we'd have had to give up several picks to get him. Also, I feel like early rd picks are even more valuable than they have been in the past, because NIL is keeping kids in school longer. The later rounds tend to be trash.
Porter became prime Ramsey because people think their team needs prime Ramsey and Porter was the guy who was reportedly available. It's all wishful thinking.
That's an all-pro price in terms of contract for him. He isn't one. I am good with signing our guys to that kind of contract. Top tier cornerbacks don't seem to be "top tier" for long either.
NFL contracts are weird, because $30 million starting in 2027 is comparable to ~$23-24 million in 2025. New deals factor in steady cap inflation. If the cap goes up 10%, $10 million becomes more than $13 million in three years, in terms of overall cap percentage.
Also, almost every contract is back loaded, offset by signing bonus to provide cash to player early. So the cap hit for a deal averaging $30M often has a first-year hit closer to $7-10 million, maybe even lower. But that means there's a $40+ million hit on the back end. And the Lions have a whole lot of back-loaded mega-deals to contend with, which are only ballooned more with each restructure pushing that cap hit into the future.
He’s a physical cornerback, meaning he plays the body too many times.
Hot topic based on high chat responses >70. If you've been paying attention to the Brad/Dan philosophy for identitying players over last 4 years.....He aint it.
Crying that this move wasn't made before this week's podcast 😭😭😭. I need the collective's back-and-forth takes.
Love this move for Dallas, big miss for Detroit especially at this price point.
https://kylechigas.substack.com/p/joey-porter-jr-trade-grades?r=7dz9zl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Dallas didn’t sign Micah Parsons! And now have signed JPJ. Their division has been good and Dallas defense has been average! So , Dallas is not SB bound! They have not EVEN won their division. Forget 15-2 and our recent success!!!
This is the neighbor's grass is always greener argument -- until you buy the lot and have to take care of it yourself. Porter is a big nope for me -- break his contract with Pitt, hold out for camp and first 3 weeks of a season, doesn't like to tackle even though he is one of the biggest CBs. Sure, in 2030 you can look back and see if Porter's career was worth it, but right now he may well not work out. T Arnold did not work out for what I will call attitude problems. I hope Brad learned that a nonstop talker may well not be as good as he thinks he is. Give me someone who SHOWS how good he is, like the high priced names the Lions have already paid. As long as I am James Joycing here, Sheila was a competitive athlete with different background and life experiences from her dad. Patriots and Chiefs are unicorns with their QB and coaches. The other 30 teams are much like the Lions have been since going 0-16. MCDC was right, it is very hard to get to the SB, much less win it, as long-time Bills fans well remember.
Dallas makes a big trade almost every year and they still suck. I prefer the way Holmes builds a team through the draft and bargai FA shopping before the season starts. Dallas still has to sign JPJ to a new contract or they will lose him in FA and he wants 30M per year. He is not worth half of that IMO.
I think the buzz around JPJ was largely Pittsburgh fan nostalgia and his dad's name recognition. But if I'm to overpay for legacy players, I'd rather have Luther Elliss send over all of HIS kids, including the girls. We could restock the whole defense.
You’re not winning a bidding war with Dallas. Even if we offer the same draft capital I’m betting Dallas drafted ahead of Detroit. I also hear there’s no contract extension in place. I have a hard time seeing JPJ excelling on that Dallas defense as well.
Lions still need a corner, how realistic would be for them to consider Zyon McCollum from TB? They seem to be headed no where.
Would 100% hinge on Tampa Bay wanting to blow it up. They signed McCollum to an extension last year that kicked in this year.
I mean the Lions window certainly isn't closed but all these big contracts for their star drafted players mean these guys are moving on to their second contract and thus aging. Doesn't seem wise to leave a gapping whole that can let the rest of the team down when you have a favorable schedule, good talent and an opportunity. Dan famously said after the loss to 49ers in playoffs that you never know if you'll get her again. Leaving a big whole is going o hurt the chances of getting there this year.
I’m guessing Brad is very competitive and wants to win. He looks like it at draft time. I get that feeling that if this organization wasn’t trying to win, Dan would say see you later. He’s as big of a competitor as you will get. I don’t know them personally but they seem to care and want to win. JPJ is looking for no1 money. Is he worth it? I don’t think so. I’m gonna ride and die with this team as miserable as it can be.
JP would have been a quick bandaid on a gash needing about 20 stitches. But I can see the longer term risk of costs verses performance. I expect Young to torch the Lion's back end but it might not be enough to overcome the Lions "O" which seems to be getting ready to shift into a higher gear. Considering the state of the Panthers team after having lost so many starters, this is a must win for Detroit. An opportunity to not let slip by.
Thanks for this, Justin. Would be interested to see a piece on cap projections (assuming 8-10% cap increases year over year).
My understanding is that cutting Kerby in the Spring would result ultimately in team-savings -- but only because the cost to keep him on the team would be fairly high.
They have almost $100M in projected cap savings next year, how does the picture change in 2028 and 2029?
I did one over the summer, where they had the most cap space tied up in 2029 and 2030. That was ahead of free agency. Everything has changed and I don't have the time to dig into all 32 teams again during the season. An offseason project.
Oh I just meant for the Lions.
I did some poking around (meaning I fired up Gemini), and it looks like they get realy squeezed in 2029, where 11 players take up $312M of cap. I'm sure they'll move a lot of that money around. (That assumes market-level deals for Branch and LaPorta) But yeah, a JPJ long-term deal would basically eliminate any remaining flexibility.
Yeah, it's complicated, even from a single-team view, because of option bonus and void years. And I think it's important to compare it to other teams. Perspective with the numbers is important.
I’m not down with JPP cause he isn’t, or wasn’t, that interested in tackling. For me if a corner isn’t that motivated as a tackler then he better be Revis in coverage. Folks are gonna hate it given the recent draft history but that’s a spot that begs to be filled in the draft. Giving the team 4-5 cost controlled years, as one would with a QB-DE. Particularly for a team already possessing high end contracts
Maybe it's cope, but when did this guy become prime Jalen Ramsey? He wants PS2 (or more) money, and we'd have had to give up several picks to get him. Also, I feel like early rd picks are even more valuable than they have been in the past, because NIL is keeping kids in school longer. The later rounds tend to be trash.
Porter became prime Ramsey because people think their team needs prime Ramsey and Porter was the guy who was reportedly available. It's all wishful thinking.
I like the way you think
That's an all-pro price in terms of contract for him. He isn't one. I am good with signing our guys to that kind of contract. Top tier cornerbacks don't seem to be "top tier" for long either.
NFL contracts are weird, because $30 million starting in 2027 is comparable to ~$23-24 million in 2025. New deals factor in steady cap inflation. If the cap goes up 10%, $10 million becomes more than $13 million in three years, in terms of overall cap percentage.
Also, almost every contract is back loaded, offset by signing bonus to provide cash to player early. So the cap hit for a deal averaging $30M often has a first-year hit closer to $7-10 million, maybe even lower. But that means there's a $40+ million hit on the back end. And the Lions have a whole lot of back-loaded mega-deals to contend with, which are only ballooned more with each restructure pushing that cap hit into the future.