You’re not winning a bidding war with Dallas. Even if we offer the same draft capital I’m betting Dallas drafted ahead of Detroit. I also hear there’s no contract extension in place. I have a hard time seeing JPJ excelling on that Dallas defense as well.
I mean the Lions window certainly isn't closed but all these big contracts for their star drafted players mean these guys are moving on to their second contract and thus aging. Doesn't seem wise to leave a gapping whole that can let the rest of the team down when you have a favorable schedule, good talent and an opportunity. Dan famously said after the loss to 49ers in playoffs that you never know if you'll get her again. Leaving a big whole is going o hurt the chances of getting there this year.
I’m guessing Brad is very competitive and wants to win. He looks like it at draft time. I get that feeling that if this organization wasn’t trying to win, Dan would say see you later. He’s as big of a competitor as you will get. I don’t know them personally but they seem to care and want to win. JPJ is looking for no1 money. Is he worth it? I don’t think so. I’m gonna ride and die with this team as miserable as it can be.
JP would have been a quick bandaid on a gash needing about 20 stitches. But I can see the longer term risk of costs verses performance. I expect Young to torch the Lion's back end but it might not be enough to overcome the Lions "O" which seems to be getting ready to shift into a higher gear. Considering the state of the Panthers team after having lost so many starters, this is a must win for Detroit. An opportunity to not let slip by.
Thanks for this, Justin. Would be interested to see a piece on cap projections (assuming 8-10% cap increases year over year).
My understanding is that cutting Kerby in the Spring would result ultimately in team-savings -- but only because the cost to keep him on the team would be fairly high.
They have almost $100M in projected cap savings next year, how does the picture change in 2028 and 2029?
I did one over the summer, where they had the most cap space tied up in 2029 and 2030. That was ahead of free agency. Everything has changed and I don't have the time to dig into all 32 teams again during the season. An offseason project.
I’m not down with JPP cause he isn’t, or wasn’t, that interested in tackling. For me if a corner isn’t that motivated as a tackler then he better be Revis in coverage. Folks are gonna hate it given the recent draft history but that’s a spot that begs to be filled in the draft. Giving the team 4-5 cost controlled years, as one would with a QB-DE. Particularly for a team already possessing high end contracts
Maybe it's cope, but when did this guy become prime Jalen Ramsey? He wants PS2 (or more) money, and we'd have had to give up several picks to get him. Also, I feel like early rd picks are even more valuable than they have been in the past, because NIL is keeping kids in school longer. The later rounds tend to be trash.
Porter became prime Ramsey because people think their team needs prime Ramsey and Porter was the guy who was reportedly available. It's all wishful thinking.
That's an all-pro price in terms of contract for him. He isn't one. I am good with signing our guys to that kind of contract. Top tier cornerbacks don't seem to be "top tier" for long either.
NFL contracts are weird, because $30 million starting in 2027 is comparable to ~$23-24 million in 2025. New deals factor in steady cap inflation. If the cap goes up 10%, $10 million becomes more than $13 million in three years, in terms of overall cap percentage.
Also, almost every contract is back loaded, offset by signing bonus to provide cash to player early. So the cap hit for a deal averaging $30M often has a first-year hit closer to $7-10 million, maybe even lower. But that means there's a $40+ million hit on the back end. And the Lions have a whole lot of back-loaded mega-deals to contend with, which are only ballooned more with each restructure pushing that cap hit into the future.
You can always borrow from the future for a hamburger today. But you have to accept the consequences of rebuilding all over, when those bills come due.
I think the question is less about second-rounder and more about second-rounder, potentially $120 million over four seasons and sacrificing another piece (not extending LaPorta, for example) to make it work.
I believe they could’ve added Porter and extended him along with both LaPorta and Branch if they were willing to do some restructures to further kick the can only to potentially face a temporary reckoning in several years if the annual cap increases don’t keep pace. Whether that tradeoff is worth it, I can’t say for certain (though a Lombardi trophy sure would be nice). But I’d like to think it wasn’t strictly a financial decision given the reasonable draft compensation paid by the Cowboys.
The amount of dead money the Lions already have tied to void years is jarring. They're already kicking the can down the road. Eventually, you have to start letting promising talent go, like we've seen with the Eagles in recent years. Or you can try to remain competitive with rubber cement and popsicle sticks, like the Saints did toward the end with Brees and beyond. If you handle it wrong and don't kill it in the draft, you can take a consistent competitor to a middling product for years and years.
I would think you could structure as such that you’d be at the bottom of the barrel for a couple years and then relatively quickly rebuild with high end draft talent / established talent acquired for draft capital that would soak up cap space created after dead cap rolls off / acquire talent in free agency with cap space created once dead cap rolls off. Maybe I am to used to playing armchair GM in Madden, though.
Edit: also, some of the huge future dead cap hits on the books can be addressed through the next extension for some of the talent still in their primes at that time. I have to assume that’s part of the plan.
The Lions are only in the business of being competitive, selling tickets and jerseys and not necessarily winning a SB. If it happens fine but they won’t go out of their way to give themselves a better chance. The NFL is like the soda industry. You have your #1’s Cokes, #2 Pepsi’s, #3 Dr Pepper‘s, etc. The Lions are Vernors, a regional soda that will never be Coke.
I don't know how anyone can reasonably say that with how much they paid the list of players above. They've paid the market rate to keep every one of their star players that they've drafted and developed. Teams that simply aim to be competitive don't do that.
History is data Justin. No NFC titles, no SB wins, the best they did is one more playoff win than Wayne Fontes and Chuck Schmidt. Those are the facts, indisputable facts.
You might not like it, but history is irrelevant. The only continuity is you. Different owner (same family, but different approach), different coach, different GM, different scouts, different players. You can judge a regime against itself, but Dan Campbell isn't responsible for Rod Marinelli's decisions. Brad Holmes isn't Russ Thomas. Sheila isn't William Clay.
Not shocked. And frankly, the Lions seem to not really have the stomach to go after winning like other franchises do. I was thinking about what this defense could have been when Brian Branch comes back, with Joey Porter. Wow. The Cowboys haven't won a Super Bowl in years, but they go after it as much as they can. And always keep it interesting. Other teams such as Chicago and the LA Rams continue to load up as well.
When I heard the Lions declare that they were excited about Ennis Rakestraw showing up for a few plays the other day, I knew they were going to 'settle' on that. They've had him for three seasons and they're excited because he showed up one Sunday. This seems to be a disease among Detroit GMs. Good enough is good enough. Great is something that takes a different level of functioning. A different level of guts and urgency.
This is for an area of the team that has been killing them for years (think: Jeff Okudah, Terrion Arnold and earlier). They had a chance to get it right for a few years and passed on it. It will be their end this year.
Not sure what radio guys you're talking about. I live in Florida. Born in Detroit. A lifelong Detroit sports fan. I watch the teams, read all sorts of material. But more than that, I use the evidence of my own senses- what I see. What amazes me is that some of you see the same thing, but won't acknowledge it. The Lions secondary is atrocious, and though Porter would have cost, in today's NFL, that is too important a position to not make a top priority. We've tried- and failed- with draft picks. Porter is a known commodity who could have completely changed that massive hole we have back there.
I don't think I'm the only Lions fan who sees it this way.
Holmes will be asked. It wouldn't be unusual for him to decline to reveal conversations with other clubs. By the way, the GM likely won't talk again until his season-ending press conference.
For sure he won't give an answer, and if he does, it will be along the lines of I'm not going to explain my thinking because you and the fans are not capable of really understanding anyway. Going 10-7 or even 11-6 against a last place schedule is good enough to keep his job.
Only if an entity outside of Allen Park knows and decides to leak it. There is zero advantage for the Lions to leak what, if anything, they offered for him.
The advantage to Allen Park is they can take some of the heat off of themselves with PR. Right now, it just seems like Holmes is overly conservative. But if the deal didn't come through because JPJ simply did not want to be in Detroit, that would at least change the narrative about how this front office approaches in-season acquisitions.
You’re not winning a bidding war with Dallas. Even if we offer the same draft capital I’m betting Dallas drafted ahead of Detroit. I also hear there’s no contract extension in place. I have a hard time seeing JPJ excelling on that Dallas defense as well.
Lions still need a corner, how realistic would be for them to consider Zyon McCollum from TB? They seem to be headed no where.
I mean the Lions window certainly isn't closed but all these big contracts for their star drafted players mean these guys are moving on to their second contract and thus aging. Doesn't seem wise to leave a gapping whole that can let the rest of the team down when you have a favorable schedule, good talent and an opportunity. Dan famously said after the loss to 49ers in playoffs that you never know if you'll get her again. Leaving a big whole is going o hurt the chances of getting there this year.
I’m guessing Brad is very competitive and wants to win. He looks like it at draft time. I get that feeling that if this organization wasn’t trying to win, Dan would say see you later. He’s as big of a competitor as you will get. I don’t know them personally but they seem to care and want to win. JPJ is looking for no1 money. Is he worth it? I don’t think so. I’m gonna ride and die with this team as miserable as it can be.
JP would have been a quick bandaid on a gash needing about 20 stitches. But I can see the longer term risk of costs verses performance. I expect Young to torch the Lion's back end but it might not be enough to overcome the Lions "O" which seems to be getting ready to shift into a higher gear. Considering the state of the Panthers team after having lost so many starters, this is a must win for Detroit. An opportunity to not let slip by.
Thanks for this, Justin. Would be interested to see a piece on cap projections (assuming 8-10% cap increases year over year).
My understanding is that cutting Kerby in the Spring would result ultimately in team-savings -- but only because the cost to keep him on the team would be fairly high.
They have almost $100M in projected cap savings next year, how does the picture change in 2028 and 2029?
I did one over the summer, where they had the most cap space tied up in 2029 and 2030. That was ahead of free agency. Everything has changed and I don't have the time to dig into all 32 teams again during the season. An offseason project.
I’m not down with JPP cause he isn’t, or wasn’t, that interested in tackling. For me if a corner isn’t that motivated as a tackler then he better be Revis in coverage. Folks are gonna hate it given the recent draft history but that’s a spot that begs to be filled in the draft. Giving the team 4-5 cost controlled years, as one would with a QB-DE. Particularly for a team already possessing high end contracts
Maybe it's cope, but when did this guy become prime Jalen Ramsey? He wants PS2 (or more) money, and we'd have had to give up several picks to get him. Also, I feel like early rd picks are even more valuable than they have been in the past, because NIL is keeping kids in school longer. The later rounds tend to be trash.
Porter became prime Ramsey because people think their team needs prime Ramsey and Porter was the guy who was reportedly available. It's all wishful thinking.
I like the way you think
That's an all-pro price in terms of contract for him. He isn't one. I am good with signing our guys to that kind of contract. Top tier cornerbacks don't seem to be "top tier" for long either.
NFL contracts are weird, because $30 million starting in 2027 is comparable to ~$23-24 million in 2025. New deals factor in steady cap inflation. If the cap goes up 10%, $10 million becomes more than $13 million in three years, in terms of overall cap percentage.
Also, almost every contract is back loaded, offset by signing bonus to provide cash to player early. So the cap hit for a deal averaging $30M often has a first-year hit closer to $7-10 million, maybe even lower. But that means there's a $40+ million hit on the back end. And the Lions have a whole lot of back-loaded mega-deals to contend with, which are only ballooned more with each restructure pushing that cap hit into the future.
Everybody tells me they can just restructure some contracts to fit JPJ in easily.
You can always borrow from the future for a hamburger today. But you have to accept the consequences of rebuilding all over, when those bills come due.
I haven’t heard a Whimpy reference in 30 years 😂😂😂
It's a great plan! NFL teams don't even play on Tuesday!
I'm versatile like that.
Interesting your comment on zone. I had read that he is not nearly as good in zone.
Passer rating against of 55.6 in zone coverage last season.
thanks Justin
Disappointing. Porter was worth a 2nd rounder.
I think the question is less about second-rounder and more about second-rounder, potentially $120 million over four seasons and sacrificing another piece (not extending LaPorta, for example) to make it work.
I believe they could’ve added Porter and extended him along with both LaPorta and Branch if they were willing to do some restructures to further kick the can only to potentially face a temporary reckoning in several years if the annual cap increases don’t keep pace. Whether that tradeoff is worth it, I can’t say for certain (though a Lombardi trophy sure would be nice). But I’d like to think it wasn’t strictly a financial decision given the reasonable draft compensation paid by the Cowboys.
The amount of dead money the Lions already have tied to void years is jarring. They're already kicking the can down the road. Eventually, you have to start letting promising talent go, like we've seen with the Eagles in recent years. Or you can try to remain competitive with rubber cement and popsicle sticks, like the Saints did toward the end with Brees and beyond. If you handle it wrong and don't kill it in the draft, you can take a consistent competitor to a middling product for years and years.
I would think you could structure as such that you’d be at the bottom of the barrel for a couple years and then relatively quickly rebuild with high end draft talent / established talent acquired for draft capital that would soak up cap space created after dead cap rolls off / acquire talent in free agency with cap space created once dead cap rolls off. Maybe I am to used to playing armchair GM in Madden, though.
Edit: also, some of the huge future dead cap hits on the books can be addressed through the next extension for some of the talent still in their primes at that time. I have to assume that’s part of the plan.
Can's gettin' heavy.
The Lions are only in the business of being competitive, selling tickets and jerseys and not necessarily winning a SB. If it happens fine but they won’t go out of their way to give themselves a better chance. The NFL is like the soda industry. You have your #1’s Cokes, #2 Pepsi’s, #3 Dr Pepper‘s, etc. The Lions are Vernors, a regional soda that will never be Coke.
this is a bad take
I don't know how anyone can reasonably say that with how much they paid the list of players above. They've paid the market rate to keep every one of their star players that they've drafted and developed. Teams that simply aim to be competitive don't do that.
Granted they sign just enough Jersey sellers to be competitive.
No matter how many times you double down, the opinion is incorrect and not rooted in any factual data.
History is data Justin. No NFC titles, no SB wins, the best they did is one more playoff win than Wayne Fontes and Chuck Schmidt. Those are the facts, indisputable facts.
You might not like it, but history is irrelevant. The only continuity is you. Different owner (same family, but different approach), different coach, different GM, different scouts, different players. You can judge a regime against itself, but Dan Campbell isn't responsible for Rod Marinelli's decisions. Brad Holmes isn't Russ Thomas. Sheila isn't William Clay.
His was a take that would’ve been dead on in the WCF-Russ Thomas era.
I thank heaven those days are gone
There are plenty of things this franchise has failed at over the years. Investing in its roster is presently not one of them.
No doubt it takes money to buy the ingredients to make your Vernor’s but in the end they’re making and selling Vernors and not Coke.
I would have been far more shocked if they did make a play for him.
Not shocked. And frankly, the Lions seem to not really have the stomach to go after winning like other franchises do. I was thinking about what this defense could have been when Brian Branch comes back, with Joey Porter. Wow. The Cowboys haven't won a Super Bowl in years, but they go after it as much as they can. And always keep it interesting. Other teams such as Chicago and the LA Rams continue to load up as well.
When I heard the Lions declare that they were excited about Ennis Rakestraw showing up for a few plays the other day, I knew they were going to 'settle' on that. They've had him for three seasons and they're excited because he showed up one Sunday. This seems to be a disease among Detroit GMs. Good enough is good enough. Great is something that takes a different level of functioning. A different level of guts and urgency.
This is for an area of the team that has been killing them for years (think: Jeff Okudah, Terrion Arnold and earlier). They had a chance to get it right for a few years and passed on it. It will be their end this year.
I’m glad I’m not this obtuse
@rob worx: Yeah, me too. Very disingenuous.
See you in January.
Turn off and stop parroting the talk radio brah, it's bad for your health... and ps one team wins the super bowl.
Not sure what radio guys you're talking about. I live in Florida. Born in Detroit. A lifelong Detroit sports fan. I watch the teams, read all sorts of material. But more than that, I use the evidence of my own senses- what I see. What amazes me is that some of you see the same thing, but won't acknowledge it. The Lions secondary is atrocious, and though Porter would have cost, in today's NFL, that is too important a position to not make a top priority. We've tried- and failed- with draft picks. Porter is a known commodity who could have completely changed that massive hole we have back there.
I don't think I'm the only Lions fan who sees it this way.
Do we ever get answers from the Lions on whether they made any effort or offered picks for him?
Holmes will be asked. It wouldn't be unusual for him to decline to reveal conversations with other clubs. By the way, the GM likely won't talk again until his season-ending press conference.
For sure he won't give an answer, and if he does, it will be along the lines of I'm not going to explain my thinking because you and the fans are not capable of really understanding anyway. Going 10-7 or even 11-6 against a last place schedule is good enough to keep his job.
Only if an entity outside of Allen Park knows and decides to leak it. There is zero advantage for the Lions to leak what, if anything, they offered for him.
The advantage to Allen Park is they can take some of the heat off of themselves with PR. Right now, it just seems like Holmes is overly conservative. But if the deal didn't come through because JPJ simply did not want to be in Detroit, that would at least change the narrative about how this front office approaches in-season acquisitions.
So, you don't believe the reports that the Lions offered a third round pick for him?
I'm not familiar with the Commanders writer who produced that report.