DFN Lions Mailbag: Doubling back to some leftover questions from the past couple weeks

Instead of calling for a fresh batch of questions, this week, I thought I’d empty out a few stray queries that found their way to my inbox and the site’s chat. Enjoy.

Q: I know guys have individual goals, but playing Goff, Monty, Jahmyr, Saint and Sewell into the fourth, up huge, spiked my heart rate. What is the thought process of coaches at that point? — Mark

Justin: Let’s take a fresh look at Detroit’s approach to pulling starters against the Jaguars. Yes, the offense remained intact into the fourth quarter, but only because their final drive together actually started in the third frame.

Could they have given the group the hook to start that series, already up 36 points? Yeah, I think you can argue they stayed with them one drive too long. Regardless, coach Dan Campbell was asked about it after the game and he noted, first, it’s been unusual how frequently the situation has come up in recent weeks, and also the desire to pull guys on a high note so poor play doesn’t potentially linger into next week.

At first glance, you’re probably thinking, well, the team scored touchdowns with each of their first seven possessions. What could they possibly need to work on after that? But that seventh drive was definitely the most sloppy, with some penalties and subpar execution, relative to the rest of the performance. Was there a realistic risk of that carrying over to Indianapolis? I’m skeptical, but there is clearly a coaching psychology Campbell believes in with these things.

The other component is there’s not always enough talent dressed to pull everyone. That’s typically why you see Sewell out there to the bitter end of these games. The Lions only dress eight offensive linemen.

Q: Wayne Fontes is, remarkably, the longest-tenured Lions coach in franchise history, and the winningest head coach (Potsy Clark by win percentage). What percentage do you give Campbell to break all three of those marks: Tenure, wins, win percentage? — Noah

Justin: At this rate, it’s getting difficult to imagine Campbell won’t end up the franchise’s longest-tenured and winningest head coach. He’ll be halfway to Fontes’ eight-year tenure — and past halfway in number of games coached based on the 17-game season — by the end of the 2024 campaign.

And Campbell will cross over the halfway point to Fontes’ win total of 66 with a victory this weekend in Indianapolis.

At 48 years old, and given the trajectory of the franchise, four years and 34 wins feel inevitable.

Catching Clark will be significantly more challenging. The coach who came with the team from Portsmouth to Detroit racked up a .679 winning percentage in seven years with the franchise.

Let’s take this out eight seasons, to where Campbell catches Fontes’ tenure. The current coach would need to win 59 of the next 75 regular season games, just shy of four out of every five games the next four and a half years, to surpass Clark.

Possible? Sure. And I understand how we all feel about the roster today, but there’s no way to tell what it looks like two, three or four years down the road. Rosters change, injuries happen, and even one down year puts Campbell further behind in the pursuit of Clark’s mark.

In terms of percentages, I'll put it above 90% Campbell resets the bar for longevity and wins, but closer to 40% he ends up surpassing Clark. Going 3-13-1 the first year on the job is an anchor.

Q: I always thought Calvin Johnson took far too many unnecessary shots from DBs and LBs. He didn’t have the knack, or mentality, to get down when additional yards weren’t there. I believe it shortened his career and had him in more pain than necessary. What do you make of St. Brown’s frequent use of the ‘QB slide’ this season? — Michael

Justin: When you’re bigger, faster and stronger than most back-seven defenders, it’s difficult to tell a player to concede. That’s just not the mentality of most of these guys. Did it shorten Johnson’s career? Maybe. But I think the mental wear and tear of losing shortened it more than any of his physical ailments.

As for St. Brown, the perception he’s giving himself up more frequently caught me by surprise. So here I am, 11:30 p.m. on a Friday night, going through the film of every one of his targets. I got through about half of them without seeing a single slide, only a couple forward lunges as multiple defenders closed in on him. So I’m wondering if I’m reading your question incorrectly. Maybe you’re asking me if I think he should slide more frequently.

To that, I say good luck. Again, that does not mesh with the ultra-competitive nature of St. Brown. The only receiver I can think of who gives himself up regularly is Tyler Lockett, which has probably increased his longevity, but I just can’t imagine St. Brown following suit.

Q: How do coordinators salaries compare to head coaches?  Could the Lions conceivably pay him a head coach type salary to keep him? - John

Justin: The problem with this conversation is so little of the information is public. Most estimates have the top NFL coordinators earning in the ballpark of $3 million, which is half of the low-end reported figures for head coaches. Some of the top names are projected to be pulling down closer to $20 million per season.

I’ve been told the Lions already made Johnson one of the highest-paid coordinators in the league after the 2022 season. It’s not reasonable to suddenly offer him a head coach salary because it would disrupt the entire economic system across the league, pissing off the other 31 owners. That decision wouldn't exist in a vacuum. It would almost immediately cause reverberations, accelerating the raising of the market floor for the profession, from head coaches to coordinators to position coaches.

Q: Can you explain some of these metrics like DVOA, the different EPA's, CPOE and others? - Davis

Justin: I can try. Or, at the very least, I can share how the publications that use those numbers define them.

DVOA is a popular one, created by Football Outsiders, which attempts to contextualize the down-to-down consistency of a team against the league average, weighted against the quality of the opponent.

DVOA is presented as a percentage. The Lions are near the top of the league in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The team’s 21.1% offensive DVOA implies the team is 21.1% better than average in a cumulative analysis of each offensive snap.

EPA, which has been around since the 1980s, stands for expected points added. It is similar to DVOA in many ways because it attempts to contextualize the value of each play.

The example used is gaining 3 yards on a third-and-2 is more valuable than 8 yards on third-and-10 because the first generates a fresh set of downs while the latter does not. EPA also factors in other things such as field position and time remaining.

Each play is rated on a scale and you’ll usually see rankings as expected points per play. Again, the 2024 Lions are near the top of those metrics for both offense and defense. Here are more details on that one if you’d like to read up on it.

Finally, there’s CPOE, which is completion percentage over expected. It tries to add added context to the standard completion percentage metric. It evaluates the difficulty of each pass attempt — the likelihood it’s completed — by incorporating several variables, including down and distance, how far the pass traveled in the air beyond the line of scrimmage, yards needed for a first down, plus several other factors.

Here’s more on that one.

Q: Sonic and Knuckles still makes me smile when I hear it, but why stop with the running backs? If Dan Campbell were a video game character, who is he? Amon-Ra? Sewell? - Mike

Justin: I punted on this one a couple weeks back because I ran out of time to come up with thoughtful answers as part of a 25-question mailbag. But I wanted to come back to it, so here’s a retired gamer’s best effort.

Dan Campbell: Doc Louis from Punchout. That guy could coach. According to the internet, Lil’ Mac was 5-foot-7, 107 pounds. Louis led him to a win over Mike Tyson. Campbell is similarly a master motivator.

Penei Sewell: Kratos. If I’m choosing anyone on the roster to take out a God in one-on-one combat, it’s Sewell.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Master Chief. Trained from childhood for combat? This guy has been lifting weights since he was in kindergarten.

Jameson Williams: Crazy Taxi, blazing fast, sometimes out of control, but finds a way to get from point A to point B.

Aidan Hutchinson: Crash Bandicoot, a violent, whirling dervish.

Brian Branch: Mega Man, the versatility to adapt to any environment and thrive while constantly adding new superpowers to his tool set.

Kerby Joseph: Kirby, duh. Dude inhales any football in his vicinity.

Alim McNeill: Bowser. Big, powerful, deceptively quick.

Jared Goff: After spending 30 minutes trying to come up with a good answer, I’m tapping out and turning this one over to the people.