DFN Lions Mailbag: Trade talk, a little more trade talk and a draft question, for good measure

Welcome to this week’s mailbag. Sorry for the delay, but I had to fly to Green Bay.

Question: If the Lions stand pat at defensive line, do they win their division? Conference? Super Bowl? — Joe Ricciardi

Justin: Let's start with this, even if they make a meaningful addition at the trade deadline, it doesn’t guarantee achieving any of those goals. Injuries happen every week. What’s to say the newcomer doesn’t get hurt, or another position isn’t suddenly hit hard by the injury bug?

That said, I subscribe to the belief that not making a move — trying to roll to the finish line with what they have — diminishes their chances of accomplishing this season’s objectives.

So far, the Lions have survived with a below-average pressure rate and a lack of sacks, but did so facing Sam Darnold and Mason Rudolph. Is that sustainable against higher-caliber QB play they could see in the postseason? I wouldn't feel great about it.

Question: Does Brad Holmes value his draft picks more than the media does given his track record, making any potential trade harder to agree to? — Zac Herr

Justin: I don’t think that’s fair to say.

Holmes hasn’t been as hesitant to trade draft assets as some might assume. Whether it’s during the draft, where he’ll package multiple or future selections to land a specific target such as Brian Branch, Brodric Martin or Giovanni Manu, or shipping out picks to acquire a veteran like Donovan Peoples-Jones or Carlton Davis, Holmes will pull the trigger when the price tag is right to help fill a need or a want.

Question: What is with the NFL bye week schedule? Last week there were no byes. Why not just have each division take the same week off for fairness? — Aaron Sturgill

Justin: As you might imagine, generating a schedule is complicated. It's why the league leans on computers to assist with the process. There are all kinds of factors to consider, including other events that might be going on in an NFL town, or even being held at an NFL venue, which complicates matters.

The complete lack of byes last week was unusual, but not unprecedented. It happens every several years. As for no byes during Week 13, which you mentioned in a part of the question I trimmed, teams rarely have byes during Thanksgiving week.

Question: How has the improved defense affected how Ben Johnson is calling the offense? — John Vandenberg

Justin: I’m not sure it’s impacted Ben Johnson as much as it’s potentially made Dan Campbell feel less compelled to try to steal possessions by going for it on fourth down.

The Lions have been among the league leaders in attempted fourth downs the past three years, but are currently middle of the pack, on pace for just 24 tries after averaging nearly 40 since 2021.

Question: I think automatic first downs from 5-yard penalties are the worst thing in the NFL. If you were NFL commissioner for a day, what is one thing you would change? — Jamelle Cooper

Justin: One? How about three? First, I’d push for the expansion of replay review — building on the league's recent usage of replay assistance — to correct obvious mistakes made by on-field officiating. The game flow hasn’t been negatively impacted and we’re already seeing positive progress in this area. As a fan of the game, I don't want to see a badly blown call impact the outcome like we did with the Vikings/Rams matchup a couple of weeks back.

Secondly, if a team is penalized half the distance to the goal, say drawing a holding infraction at their own 7-yard line, it should still result in requiring the penalized team to gain 10 additional yards. No more first-and-13 from the 4, it’s now first-and-20 from the 4.

Finally, make kickoff touchbacks more penalizing to further encourage returns. Go full XFL with the new format, making touchbacks come out to the 35.

Question: Beginning of the year, it was agreed that losing Aidan Hutchinson would be the biggest hit to the defense and maybe the entire team. Now that he's gone, who is the next player we simply can’t afford to lose? — Matthew Singer

Justin: The very obvious answer is quarterback Jared Goff. The offensive scheme is really good, but his ability to execute Johnson’s vision is critical to the operational success.

Question: Why do teams only dress 48 players on game day? — Paul Kushiner

Justin: My understanding is it's a competitive balance concern. As we know, teams are often managing multiple injuries each week. Well, what if one team is coming off a Monday night game and another had a bye? The team playing on the short week is likely to have more players needing to miss the upcoming matchup.

By restricting roster size on game day, you’re leveling the scale, so that one side isn’t able to overwhelm the other with healthy depth.

Question: If you were the GM and facing the final weekend before the trade deadline, which games would you be paying attention to? — John Weeast

Justin: You’re watching the teams currently teetering on playoff contention conceding they’re probably out of the mix after this weekend. My eyes are on the franchises currently two games or more back of the final seed in their respective conferences going into Sunday.

The Bengals are probably the cutoff. Even if they lose to the Raiders, and the Chargers top the Browns, the gap is probably not big enough to justify punting on the season. And, from reading some of the reports of the situation, it sounds like the Bengals might actually be looking to add a piece at the deadline.

Sorry everyone who has been eyeing Trey Hendrickson.

Back to the question, losses for the Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Dolphins, Patriots, Saints or Giants should seal their status as viable sellers.

Question: There seems to be a running back renaissance going on with NFL offenses right now. How much, if any, can be attributed to the Lions balanced offense over the past couple of years? — Michael Murphy

Justin: It's really difficult to attribute something like that directly to the Lions, and I'm not sure how much perceptions match reality. Most of the teams that are close to balanced, outside of Detroit, have dual-threat quarterbacks. And there are still plenty of squads throwing the ball 60% or more of the time.

I'd bet that if we took a deep dive into shifting offensive philosophies, we would find more of a direct correlation to defensive efforts being geared toward limiting deep passing and explosive plays.

Question: How’s your subscribed count coming along? Are you where you want to be? — Nate

Justin: Growth has slowed considerably, and predictably, as we’ve moved into the heart of the season. That said, I’m in a really healthy spot, not far off from my Year 2 goal a little more than three months into the Detroit Football Network’s existence.

I spend more time thinking about retention than growth. I want readers who made this leap with me to feel like they’re getting quality and value for their support.

Question: Are you sick of talking about Jamo’s juvenile transgressions? (That’s not the question!) But are the Lions doing anything about it? Or can they do anything? — Dan Stone

Justin: Like Dan Campbell, I’d rather not be talking about it, but it’s all part of the job. I do believe there’s a concerning lack of attention to detail with the young receiver which is causing these different, but similar issues, and it’s all reflective of his youth and immaturity.

As to what the team is doing, they have all kinds of resources available to players, including classes, counseling and mentoring, but it ultimately boils down to personal responsibility. Williams is an adult, accountable for accepting those resources, listening to the advice, and the actions he takes.

There are in-house punishments available to the team, but Williams’ three issues have risen to and have/will be handled at the league level. He hasn’t violated any significant team rules, as far as I know, such as missing meetings or curfew on the road.

Question: Because it's never too early for draft questions, what positions would you envision going in rounds 1-3 for the Lions next spring? — Jim Kling

Justin: The Lions typically select the best player available on their board and I don’t anticipate them deviating from that strategy. Additionally, we have no idea which holes the team might fill in free agency. So I’m reluctant to answer your question as asked. It is worth noting, the team doesn’t currently have a third-rounder after using it to acquire Manu in last year’s draft.

A more informative answer would be forecasting the team’s biggest needs heading into next offseason. Here are my top three:

Defensive line: The Lions have studs in Hutchinson and Alim McNeill, plus DJ Reader remains under contract for another year, but Marcus Davenport and Levi Onwuzurike are on expiring deals and might not be brought back for reasons ranging from durability to cost.

It can be difficult to identify quality edge-rushing help outside the top half of the first round, but if the Lions are going to stick with a pocket-crushing style off the edges, power rushers are a little more likely to be available where the Lions are expected to be selecting.

Wide receiver: The Lions should absolutely consider bringing back Tim Patrick, but after the struggles of finding a No. 3 option this offseason, the sharply rising costs associated with the position, and the number of readymade options coming out in the draft, it’s as good a time as any to restock the cupboards.

Sam linebacker: Again, the simple solution would be sticking with the status quo and re-signing Derrick Barnes. Still, training camp highlighted the challenge of finding capable players at that spot. Trevor Nowaske is filling in well, at the moment, but the sample size is a little small to suggest he’s a long-term answer.

Beyond those three spots, guard and cornerback are trending toward positions that could use more depth with long-term starting potential. Corner, in particular, with Carlton Davis III and Emmanuel Moseley on expiring deals, is lining up to need some attention.

Question: Any plans during your trip to Lambeau? How does the Lambeau experience differ for you from a reporting perspective — Basia

Justin: I’d probably tailgate and have a few drinks during the game if I wasn’t reporting.

If I’m being honest, Green Bay is one of my least favorite NFL trips. It’s like covering a game in a Michigan suburb like Livonia or Brighton. That said, the stadium and game day experiences are excellent. You can feel the history and it’s absolutely worthy of the pilgrimage if you’re a fan considering it.

Question: I haven’t heard much about DJ Reader. Has his impact been what the Lions hoped when they signed him? — Scott Mirkes

Justin: Reader plays a position that does more to create for others than himself. He wasn't coming here to stuff the stat sheet. He's here to take on two blockers so his teammates can make plays.

When I watch the film each week, I see his impact. And while I think he's played a little below his lofty standard against the run, I remind myself he's still working his way back to his peak after a grueling rehab from a serious injury.

Question: Do you think Levi has played himself into the long-term plans here by showing how effective he can be when healthy? — Christian Andresen

Justin: I'm sure Holmes would love to find a way to keep Onwuzurike in the fold. He's never hidden his love for the player, and we're finally seeing the production that's fulfilling the GM's draft-day vision when he snagged the defensive lineman in the second round out of Washington.

Plus, how do you not appreciate the attitude Onwuzurike had through his injury woes and the effort he's put into getting back and making this impact? He's a fit in every way.

The question becomes the cost. There's only so much cap space to go around. I haven't reached a point where I've been able to do a deep dive into the team's cap health for next year and beyond, but I do know they have a lot of young talent due for extensions in the next two years.

Question: Update on John Cominsky? — Shane

Justin: I reached out to a source familiar with Cominsky's recovery Friday night and was told the current hope is he can return for the postseason.

Question: — What are things we think we've learned about the 2024 Lions that are different from last year's team at this almost halfway point? — Tim Bowers

Justin: Offensively, Williams has been better than expected and opened up the ways the Lions can attack defenses. And with the ground game, the Lions have leaned far more on zone concepts in 2024. I think it speaks to how much faith they have in the vision and decision-making of their backs to maximize those designs.

Defensively, they’ve brilliantly grown Branch into one of the best defensive backs in the league by initially caging him to nickel as a rookie and slowly expanding him to a three-down role as his understanding of the scheme grew.

Sticking in the second level, the cornerback overhaul is largely working as intended. The group hasn’t been perfect, by any means, but their relentless physicality, and ability to stick with their coverage assignments, is allowing Aaron Glenn to play more of his preferred man-to-man coverage.

Question: — I’ve seen the language used for practice squad players is they have been poached. What does that process look like? — @RSmukala

Justin: Think of the practice squad as temporary employees. They are paid weekly, but have no guarantees, financially or contractually.

If a team is interested in signing another team’s practice squad player, they call the agent and make an offer, typically veteran minimum. From there, the current team is usually given the right to match and promote the player to the active roster.

The only other meaningful component here is if a player is poached by another team, they are contractually guaranteed at least three weeks with the new employer. Three game checks can be worth nearly as much as a full year’s practice squad salary.

Question: — Are there cap benefits to waiting until the deadline to make a potential trade? — @BrandonBahr2

Justin: Minimal. An acquiring team would be saving 1/18 of that player’s base salary each week they’re not on the roster. For most players, that amount is a small percentage of the overall cap.

There are a few players, Tennessee’s Harold Landry for example, where the savings would be close to $1 million per week.