DFN Mailbag: Goff's Hall chances, Hutchinson's contract, OT situation going into KC and plenty more

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Allen Park — I skipped “Thoughts to End the Week” this Friday. Frankly, I didn’t have anything interesting rattling around my brain after investing all my energy into a couple of stories, most notably a look at a significant schematic change being deployed by first-year defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard.

So with no thoughts of my own to share, I turned to you to generate them for me. I put out a call for mailbag questions, and you delivered in a big way. Not wanting to disappoint, you’re in for a pretty epic Q&A below.

And if that’s not enough, I answered another dozen or so in the chat. Feel free to check those out later.

For now, the main event. Enjoy!

Question: Will Dan Skipper start at left tackle on Sunday? — Bob Kaminski

Justin: I think we all understand the preference is getting Taylor Decker back in the fold this week. Coach Dan Campbell said there’s been improvement this week, and with the bye around the corner for added recovery time, it’s realistic that the regular starter is back out there this Sunday.

However, if the Lions continue to be conservative with Decker, with an eye on preserving him for the stretch run, I do think Skipper gets the call. And, honestly, that was probably going to be the case even before Giovanni Manu suffered a mid-week knee injury that kept him out of Friday’s practice and has him listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.

Skipper repped ahead of Manu all training camp, filling in for Decker with the starting unit. Was it pretty? Not really. But what did you expect when he was routinely asked to block up Aidan Hutchinson? Regardless, what you get from Skipper that you don’t with Manu is confidence. Skipper has been in this league a long time, and whatever physical limitations he might have, he can play fast and won’t have many, if any, mental errors.

Manu gave up two sacks last week because he missed a check at the line and took a bad situational approach to his block late in the game. Those were two hits quarterback Jared Goff didn’t need to absorb, and might not have if Skipper had been out there.

Question: I’m curious if you’d be willing to take a stab at who the contenders and who the pretenders are through five weeks. — Al Stahl

Justin: As long as we can agree that it’s too early for the discussion and things are bound to change significantly over the next two months, I’m happy to oblige.

In the AFC, it’s going to take a lot more before I write off the Chiefs. And obviously, Buffalo remains legit, even with an ugly loss to New England last week. I’d call the Broncos and Chargers more fringe contenders, but I’m buying on both because of the coaching.

With the Ravens in the toilet and Joe Burrow out, I’m not seeing a legitimate contender in the AFC North. The AFC South is the mystery. The Colts have been cooking, beating up on bad teams and getting an impressive home win over the Broncos. Still, I’m going to need to see more from Daniel Jones before I push any chips in on their contending status.

The same for the Jaguars. Jacksonville is playing good ball right now, and I’m enjoying Travis Etienne’s resurgence, but that team has long struggled to stay consistent through the course of a season. Honestly, if the Texans can win three of their next four in what’s looking like a difficult stretch, they could end up a tough out come January.

In the NFC, with the Eagles floundering, I like the Lions, Packers and Buccaneers more. Tampa Bay really looks to be taking a step forward this year, especially offensively, with the addition of Emeka Egbuka.

I’m not dismissing the Eagles. That’s still a Super Bowl-caliber roster, but they could struggle to win their division if the return of Jayden Daniels helps Washington get back on track.

Seattle’s the wild card in the conference. The switch from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold has looked good, and the defense is respectable. Not sure it’s Super Bowl-caliber, but I could see them winning a playoff game or two with the right matchups.

In terms of pretenders, I’m struggling to buy the 49ers and Steelers, at least among the early division leaders.

Question: Is Isaac TeSlaa starting this week? Or are we going with more 12 than 11 personnel? — John Mullen

Justin: Kalif Raymond is questionable after missing Wednesday’s practice and being limited the rest of the week. However, if he’s cleared ahead of kickoff, he’s still likely to outsnap TeSlaa in the WR3 role.

Like the Skipper/Manu conversation above, Raymond is not going to miss an assignment because of a mental error. TeSlaa is still working through some of that stuff as he processes the entirety of an NFL playbook and banks reps against different defensive looks.

Detroit already plays less 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) than most teams. Given the Chiefs’ struggles against the run this season, and the Lions’ desire to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible, a slightly heavier lean to more two-TE sets wouldn’t be surprising.

Question: Colin Cowherd said this week that Jared Goff is a Hall of Famer. What would it require for Goff to go to the Hall? — Jamelle Cooper

Justin: I didn’t hear it, but it would be fittingly hyperbolic commentary for the format.

No, Goff isn’t a Hall of Famer. He’s not particularly close, at least not at the moment. In five or six years, continuing his current level of production, we can have the conversation.

Pro Football Reference has made an effort to quantify a player’s Hall chances. The average score for a QB via their metric is 108. Goff sits at 48, similar to Tony Romo, Derek Carr, Jim Plunkett and Vinny Testaverde, to give you an idea.

Now, Goff is going to climb as he racks up the counting stats the next several years, but where will he ultimately rank in the conversation? He could easily end up with a career that compares favorably to Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers, two prolific passers from the previous decade, but Goff is about 25,000 yards and 150 TDs short of those guys.

Goff has four Pro Bowls, no All-Pro selections and no MVPs, obviously. That’s half the Pro Bowls of Rivers, while Ryan earned an MVP award and All-Pro honors for his incredible 2016 season.

What does Goff need to do to earn a gold jacket? Winning a Super Bowl, particularly in Detroit, would go a long way. Otherwise, stay healthy, produce at his current level for another six or so years and net some more individual accomplishments. MVP hardware could do the same for Goff that it’s done for Ryan, who is eligible for the Hall in 2028.

I’m not a voter, but I wouldn’t be in any rush to enshrine Rivers. The same goes for Eli Manning, although I’m not naive. He’s going to get in eventually because of his postseason success.

Among active quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers is a lock, and I’d argue Ryan and Matthew Stafford have better cases than Rivers and the younger Manning. And who knows what the resumes will end up looking like for Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, but that trio is well on their way to being first-ballot selections. Mahomes probably already meets that standard.

Part of the conversation is how you stack up to your peers. If we consider the Hall of Fame reserved for elite players, has Goff ever truly been the best three or four at the position? Win an MVP, and it would be undeniable. Better yet, win a Super Bowl with the Lions, and he’ll be legendary.

Question: If there were a tag team Royal Rumble between NFL coaches, who would you pick for the match, and who would win? — Andrew Tomlinson

Justin: Andrew, respectfully, I don’t think you watch pro wrestling. While tag team battle royals are a quirky match format that exists, the Royal Rumble is designed to be every man for themselves. I just want to make sure we’re on the same page.

However, if you’re asking which coaches would make for an entertaining tag match, we’re starting with Dan Campbell. Charisma, mic skills, size, he’s a promoter’s dream. Now, is he going to be the muscle for a cocky, smaller partner like Matt LeFleur or Sean McVay, or are we going with a powerhouse squad of two badasses?

Give me the latter option. Campbell and Mike Vrabel are going to be my answer to the Road Warriors. Hell, give the coaches Hawk and Animal’s spiked shoulder pads. Close your eyes and tell me it doesn’t work.

On the other side, sticking with former players, I like Demeco Ryans and Aaron Glenn. They might lack the size of their opponents across the ring, but there’s enough grit and athleticism to move tickets.

In the end, the same way the Road Warriors dominated everywhere they worked for decades, I’m booking Campbell and Vrabel to come out on top. They’re going to print money in the Midwest territories.

Question: Is Sione Vaki going to play this year? Or do we move on from him like we did Ifeatu Melifonwu? — John Rumery

Justin: It never ceases to amaze me how quickly a fan base turns on a player. I’m not picking on John. His sentiment is one that’s been repeated on social media and in the comments/chats of this site.

Yes, Vaki will return this season, potentially as early as next week, but more likely after the bye.

Still, let’s be clear, the comparison to Melifonwu is ridiculous. Vaki played 16 of 17 games as a rookie. He also played 26 of 27 games in his two seasons at Utah. Right now, he’s dealing with some large muscle strains. Hamstrings are nasty business, particularly when your primary job as a special teamer is sprinting long distances. His current issue, a groin strain, is compensatory in nature.

It’s bad luck, but he hasn’t even missed half a season. Are you throwing DJ Reed in the garbage, as well? He has a hamstring issue that will shelve him for at least four games.

Injuries happen. Yes, some guys are more prone to them than others, like Melifonwu or Marcus Davenport. However, we’re talking about what amounts to a singular issue for Vaki after three healthy seasons. What are we even doing here, talking about cutting him?

If this were a persistent issue over two or three seasons, I’d understand the sentiment. Presently, I genuinely baffled people feel this way.

Question: How does the Lions’ defensive scheme change if Brian Branch can’t go? — Julian Swearengin

Justin: I don’t think you’d see schematic changes as much as you’d see some personnel adjustments. Branch is a Swiss Army knife, who can play deep, roam underneath as a robber, line up in the box and reliably play the run, and cover a tight end man-to-man. That’s special versatility.

If you had to replace him with, say, Loren Strickland, Thomas Harper or Erick Hallett, you probably split those assignments according to the individual’s strengths.

Question: As a percentage of the cap, what is the most you would use on a top-five edge? — Dave McCreedy

Justin: It’s not that cut and dry. NFL contracts don’t have a consistent structure, are almost always back-loaded, and increasingly have dead money attached beyond the length of the contract with the bigger deals.

For example, if Jameson Williams played out his new extension with no adjustments, the Lions would carry a $40 million, dead-money cap hit after the contract expires.

So when we talk about Hutchinson getting $50 million per season, it’s not exactly $50 million each season. It’s more cap hits of $20 million, $30 million, $50 million, $60 million and $65 million, with $25 million in dead money left over at the end.

In terms of average value, what you’re finding is that the top edge rushers are taking up 12-16.5%. That’s fair for what those players contribute week to week.

Question: What Lions player/coach from the past would you most like to do a story on? — Derek Aaron

Justin: I’ve always thought it would be interesting to catch up with Jahvid Best. I’d like to know more about what he went through with the concussions, both the symptoms and fighting like hell to get cleared. What lingering effects are there, if any? Plus, his post-career has been interesting, including competing in the 2016 Olympics as a sprinter.

Question: How does the staff/front office balance injury management vs remaining competitive in games? — Kenny Marion

Justin: First and foremost, they lean on the medical staff to make decisions. Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell aren’t reviewing the MRIs and making game-day calls. They also listen to the player, which is admittedly risky, because a player’s competitiveness can lead to bad decisions. But it’s tough to counter if the player doesn’t want to provide an honest assessment of how they’re feeling.

Overall, Detroit’s approach has largely been conservative under current leadership. They don’t want to push a guy where there’s a chance to make it worse. Obviously, it’s not always foolproof, as we’ve recently seen with Terrion Arnold.

Question: With Hutchinson continuing to ascend, and that hypothetically driving his price higher, can you give us potential reasons the deal has not been completed yet? — Jordan Walraven

Justin: Micah Parsons has likely played a bigger role in things than people realize.

In the NFL, he who signs last often signs for the most. Knowing the Lions had significant leverage with two years of contractual control, it made sense for Hutchinson to wait for the other top guys to get their deals done to give him a bar to raise.

Parsons was the last shoe to drop. When he forced his way out of Dallas, the Packers raised the bar a little more than most anticipated. We were surprised when Myles Garrett got $40 million per year this offseason, only for Parsons to get 16% more a few months later. That’s significant.

With more steep hikes to the overall cap expected in the coming years, Hutchinson could be legitimately looking at $50 million per season, especially if he can earn Defensive Player of the Year, something Parsons has yet to do.

Question: With the selflessness of the team spreading the ball around, and all of the re-signings needing to take place in the next couple of years, do you think these players are willing to sacrifice top pay in order to stay together on this team and under the salary cap? — Sam Kraut

Justin: I don’t ever expect a player in their prime earning window to take a discount. The discount is the rookie contract. The second deal is a player’s biggest and best chance to maximize their worth, which in the NFL, is only a few years.

The players who take discounts are typically at the end of their careers, past their prime, and looking to win a championship. It’s also more common with those who were once top-of-the-market earners. They got theirs and are just trying to check a box on the bucket list before calling it a career.

I do not see a scenario where Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta or Jahmyr Gibbs take anything less than max value.

Question: Not so much a request for a prediction, but wondering if you can give a “101 explainer” on the flex rules? I’m also curious how you handle flex games as a small business owner — SE

Justin: Starting in Week 5, through the end of the season, the NFL can flex a subpar primetime matchup out of the slot in favor of a more appealing one.

It only applies to Sunday Night Football from Week 5 through Week 11. Monday Night Football gets flex options starting in Week 12, while Thursday Night Football can only flex games from Week 14-17.

For the early-season matchups, the NFL gives teams at least 12 days notice. For Sunday Night Football in Weeks 14-17, only six days notice is required. Thursday night changes require a three-week heads-up.

In terms of how I handle it, I adjust flights and hotels as necessary and eat the change fees out of pocket. There’s also some pouting when no one is looking.

Question: Understanding that defenses are taking away the Jameson Williams’ deep balls, isn’t it incumbent on Morton to find ways to get the ball into his hands other ways? — Tim Harding

Justin: Morton’s primary responsibility is helping the offense score points, more specifically, enough points to win. Currently, the Lions are the highest-scoring team in the league and riding a four-game win streak, so no one in the building is losing sleep over Williams’ recent lull in receiving production.

Now, if the Lions were losing or struggling to move the ball, that’s when you start nitpicking. But if it’s not Williams, it’s going to be someone else. Last year, it was Sam LaPorta. And if Williams and LaPorta are rolling, we’d wonder what was wrong with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions took shot after shot to Williams against the Browns. They didn’t connect. They didn’t take those shots against the Bengals because of a concentrated effort to take him away. That led to LaPorta and St. Brown feasting underneath. It’s always going to be a give-and-take with the unit.

Question: Any chance Vaki fills in at safety when he returns? — Kirk

Justin: If asked, he’d do it. Do I think the Lions are going to ask? Nope. They drafted him for his special teams ability, first and foremost, but also because they were intrigued by his ceiling as a running back. He has game-breaking potential with the ball in his hands, particularly as a pass-catcher.

You’d rather have a more explosive version of Theo Riddick than a below-average safety, who hasn’t practiced the position in two years and would be starting from scratch in your scheme.

Question: If we lose another DB or two in this game, which WR or other position player would be an emergency DB? Do the players comment on who on the roster could be most like Travis Hunter, a two-way player? — Russell Sieg

Justin: I can’t imagine a scenario where they’d move any offensive player to defense. They’d put Grant Stuard at safety before deploying Dominic Lovett in the slot.

I’m sure a quarter of the roster would tell you they could play on the opposite side of the ball if given a chance, especially some of the defensive backs. That exaggerated confidence is in their DNA.

In reality, none of them could, at least not effectively. The expertise and precision it requires to compete in the NFL would quickly expose anyone trying to make a quick switch.

With a few weeks of working on the techniques and learning some basic play calls, Penei Sewell could probably do some things at defensive tackle. And I think Jack Campbell or Stuard might be decent as a blocking tight end, particularly working in some of the fullback alignments out of the backfield.

Vaki is still the most realistic two-way option, only because he’s done it recently. Still, I don’t think anyone should be clamoring to see it.

Question: How have Terrion Arnold’s first two camps and in-season play compared to what you saw of Jeff Okudah over the same time period? — Brian

Justin: Arnold’s second camp was better than anything I saw from Okudah on the practice field, particularly the ability to regularly contest and break up throws. It’s not particularly close.

I’d also argue that Arnold’s man-to-man coverage as a rookie was better than Okudah ever gave the Lions. The only area where I see clear similarities is both were immediately plus run defenders for their position.

Arnold has more short-area quickness. The difference in movement skills is readily apparent. He reminds me more of a young Darius Slay than a young Okudah.

Question: When does Alim McNeill get activated? — Bill G

Justin: According to a conversation I had with McNeill in the locker room Friday afternoon, the plan is next Monday, against Tampa Bay. It’s not etched in stone, but it’s the working assumption. Earlier in the day, coach Dan Campbell projected the team would limit McNeill to 20-25 reps once he debuts.

Question: In hindsight, were EDGE concerns overhyped? Or is Hutch just that dominant that he’s covering what we’ve lost? In other words, how different would the line look at this point had the team addressed the situation with more money or a high draft pick for a new bookend? — Matthew Smith

Justin: I mean, yes, but overhyped by who? Talk radio? Social media? Everyone’s favorite columnist at the Free Press? While I absolutely supported the idea of re-signing Za’Darius at the right price — which the Eagles’ offer exceeded — I consistently pointed out the team’s collective of Marcus Davenport, Josh Paschal and Al-Quadin Muhammad opposite Hutchinson was adequate. More specifically, I repeatedly touted Muhammad’s pressure rate being only a tick below Smith’s in 2024.

Now, I didn’t foresee Paschal missing all of camp and the start of the season with an injury. Nor could I have anticipated that Levi Onwuzurike would miss the entire season with an ACL injury. On the flip side, you never know where help might come from. Like Muhammad’s arrival a year ago, waiver claim Tyler Lacy has been a truly solid, plug-and-play schematic fit with Davenport sidelined by injury.

Realistically, the Lions always wanted a pocket-crushing strongside option opposite Hutchinson. Smith would have been more of a backup to Hutchinson than a regular option opposite him, outside of some obvious passing situations. It’s the same role Muhammad is filling now, with similar, potentially better production than Smith would have provided.