DFN Mailbag: Jamo's ceiling, Bates' range, the risk-reward with Joseph and best press box dining
Welcome to the first of hopefully many Detroit Football Network mailbags. For this debut edition, I pulled questions from both the chat for subscribers as well as Twitter/X. For those familiar with the concept, I've never liked wasting much energy on an introduction, so let’s get right to your questions.
Q: What do you believe is Jameson Williams’ ceiling after this training camp? Who historically does he remind you of? — Justin Newberry/@Jnoobs
Justin: Ceiling? Oh man, it’s not even that outlandish to suggest Williams could have a 1,000-yard season if everything falls right. Hell, he's the type of explosive weapon who could rack up 150 yards in a game with just three catches.
If we assume Jared Goff throws for around 4,500 yards, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is responsible for a third of that like he was a year ago, it leaves 3,000 for the rest of the roster. With no clearly defined No. 3 receiver, there’s a need for Williams to step up.
But again, that’s the ceiling. Everything I’ve seen from Williams suggests there are going to be peaks and valleys with his game-by-game production. A more reasonable benchmark is probably between 700-800 yards.
As far as a comparison, there just aren’t many tall, lanky options with Williams' rare speed. He wasn’t as tall, but I used to frequently reference Desean Jackson until Lions special teams coordinator Dave Fipp pointed out the difference in the receivers’ stride length.
Another comp I like is a less-polished Jaylen Waddle, who Williams helped replace at Alabama. Again, shorter, but possessing the same lethal speed that rattles opposing secondaries. To be clear, Waddle is a superior route runner and has more reliable hands.
If you want to go back a little further, maybe Willie Gault, who had Olympic speed, could score a touchdown on any play, but had maddening inconsistencies and was never considered one of the league’s top receivers.
Q: My presumption is the mass of receivers on our roster and practice squad are participating in an extended tryout. Can we presume that come Week 4, the PS is more equitable across positions? — @Hermaphro
Justin: No, I would not make that assumption. Look no further than last season, when the Lions had at least five receivers on the main roster and three on the practice squad much of the year.
Heck, some teams kept seven receivers on their initial 53-man rosters this week. The Lions having eight in the building is a standard amount.
Q: Can the Lions be considered legitimate SB contenders with concerns at the WR and K positions? — Tim Harding/@TBoneBarrie
Justin: Yes, because every team has weaknesses. Now, if the team were to lose Amon-Ra St. Brown to a season-ending injury, that's a different conversation. But there are enough weapons between him, Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Kalif Raymond for the offense to continue to function at a high level.
The kicker situation remains interesting, but even if the Jake Bates experiment ends up being a flop, I’m confident the Lions could find a decent kicker off the street, much like they did with Michael Badgley a couple of years back.
Q: What do you see Isiah Williams role being this year? — Cup of Joe
Justin: As it currently stands, he’s almost certainly going to see some playing time, even if it's not a lot. Yes, Raymond is penciled in as the No. 3, but he’s not going to be the No. 3 in every three-receiver package. Assuming Williams is not a health scratch, he will likely see some slot snaps on game days, while potentially also serving as one of Detroit’s two kick returners.
What impressed me most about Williams in the preseason, and something I think will translate as he matches up against higher-quality defenders, is his ability to create separation because of his impressive short-area quickness.
Is he going to catch more than 20 or 30 balls? Probably not as a rookie. Still, it feels like he has a legitimate future as an NFL slot receiver.
Q: How you holding up with the new gig? — @MMoneynva
Justin: Really well, actually. Of course, it’s a lot of work, but this job has always been a lot of work. As I’ve mentioned a few times in some of the other places where I communicate with readers, I’ve always written this much, you just didn’t notice because now you get an email, an alert or both every time I post something new.
Some business elements add to the workload, such as navigating a podcast partnership and working with a designer on a new logo, but I've always been good at managing my time.
Q: Why are the Lions playing at Dallas again this year, why not at Ford Field? — @craigjoseph22
Justin: Here’s how it works. The Lions play the entire NFC East division once every three years. The home-and-away element rotates with that. In 2019, the Lions hosted the Cowboys, in 2022 they traveled to Dallas, and in 2025 the game will be back at Ford Field.
The years the Lions don’t play the entire NFC East, like 2024, they play the correlating finisher in the division standings the previous season. First place plays first place, last place plays last place. And again, those matchups rotate: Two at home, two on the road.
There’s not a conspiracy that keeps sending Detroit to Dallas, it’s just the way the schedule rotation has been lining up. As noted, the ‘Boys will be here next year. And the Lions’ correlating NFC East matchups in 2026 and 2027 are both home games, so it could end up being three in a row.
Q: With your recent endeavors, have you experienced any change in access to players/staff/team info not working under a flagship entity, for better or worse? — @MarkVanBuren
Justin: No, the access has remained the same. If anything, I found some people are more eager to be helpful, just because they respect my bet on myself.
Q: What do the next few years of contracts look like? How do we resign Hutchinson, Jamo, Hooker, LaPorta, etc.? Seems like we can't afford everyone. How do perpetually good teams do it year after year? — @jmwhitejmwhite
Justin: Where there’s a will, there’s accounting wizardry when it comes to the salary cap. The nice thing about new contracts is the cap hits are often lowest at the beginning, so as big numbers start to hit for Jared Goff, Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown, new deals for LaPorta and Williams, if the Lions go that direction, will be easier to initially absorb.
And, in two or three years, what deals will be coming off Detroit’s books? Understand, I’m not trying to run anybody out of town, but there’s no guarantee Alex Anzalone, Taylor Decker, David Montgomery or even Frank Ragnow will still be with the Lions in 2027. That’s just the cruel nature of the business.
The Lions will continue to pay the young components of their core, while eventually phasing out some of their older veterans with draft picks. In the NFL, sustained success often comes at the cost of sentimentality.
Q: What’s with all the hamstring injuries? Is the training staff trying to sort out whether there is an issue with the training regimen? — @jftripp
Justin: It’s just the nature of the sport. What I can tell you is the team actually goes through specific hamstring stretches with a machine after practices. The training staff maintains a list and requires every player to participate.
Q: Kerby Joseph, by most metrics, has been a bad safety. Why are the Lions so stuck on him as a starter and why aren’t they bringing in competition for him like other positions? — @jimTHEsim24
Justin: I’m not sure what metrics you’re using. If we are talking about Pro Football Focus, you’re right, they don’t love him with their grading.
If I penned a scouting report on Joseph, I’d note his tremendous range and impressive ability to turn the ball over, contrasted against a high number of risks that leave the Lions exposed deep and subpar open-field tackling.
With the tackling, it’s not the highest priority for a free safety. Would you like reliability? Sure, but it’s not a deal-breaker for the last defender to be contributing on run support.
But I’d love to see the chance-taking reduced. Of course, I'm not sure how much neutering his aggressiveness would impact his ability to turn the ball over. Remember, there are only four players who intercepted at least four passes each of the past two seasons.
Joseph is a live-by-the-sword-die-by-the-sword player. You would hope, with the more snaps he sees, he reads plays better, resulting in fewer chances that leave him out of position. But if he never grows out of being the type of player he's been to this point, I think you can still live with it for the playmaking ability.
Q: What and where is the best press box food going to be this year? - Andrew Tomlinson
Justin: Dallas, hands down. See, it’s not all bad making the trip so frequently.
Q: With his limited participation this summer, will Kevin Zeitler be ready for our first game? What kind of shape is he in and how many games can we realistically expect him to play? — Paul Townsend
Justin: I have minimal concerns about Zeitler's availability for Week 1. And while it’s impossible to predict durability, his lengthy and established track record suggests it would be surprising if he doesn’t suit up for at least 15 games in 2024.
Q: How critical is the SAM position to the defense? and who are the backups to D. Barnes? — JFL
Justin: Every position is important, but SAM might be one of the least important on defense since NFL teams are in nickel packages approximately two-thirds of the time.
Who backs up Barnes has been something the Lions have spent the offseason trying to figure out, testing James Houston, Mitchell Agude and Mathieu Betts at that spot. Only Houston made the 53-man roster and he’s not the answer.
I imagine if Barnes got hurt we’d see the Lions mix and match the third linebacker spot with Ben Niemann or Malcolm Rodriguez on run downs and Jalen Reeves-Maybin in more obvious passing situations.
Q: Jahmyr Gibbs is supposed to be more active in the passing game. Will it still be primarily out of the backfield? Should we look for him in the slot or even outside? — Chad Braun
Justin: Gibbs saw nearly 100 snaps in receiver alignments as a rookie, and while that might tick up, I’d still anticipate most of his receiving work being generated via traditional backfield routes.
Q: Based on what you’ve seen to date, if I told you the Lions did not win the Super Bowl this year, what would you guess to be the team’s downfall? — Al Stahl
Justin: Natural causes.
Look, it’s really difficult to win in this league. Now, you have to beat three or four quality teams in the postseason? There are simply no guarantees. That’s why the favorites are still only 6-to-1. (The Lions are 10-to-1, for what it's worth.)
Add on the unique stress of a young team playing in the Super Bowl, especially if they face an experienced opponent such as Kansas City, and the uphill climb gets a little steeper.
A more obvious reason for derailment would be injuries, particularly to some combination of Goff, St. Brown, Hutchinson, Sewell or a couple of the defensive backs.
Q: Who gets more practice time during the week of practice leading up to game day, the backup or the scout team QB? — Michael Murphy
Justin: They are one in the same, most weeks. Goff will likely take most, if not all the reps with the first-team offense, while Hooker will lead the scout team.
Q: Why do you think the Lions prioritized moving Branch to safety, rendering Melifonwu a backup? — Justin Conlon
Justin: It’s as simple as they don’t want Branch needing to leave the field. As a nickel, he was susceptible to his playing time being reduced by the opponent’s personnel decisions.
Look at the NFC Championship game. Branch was only on the field 41% of the defensive snaps. The 49ers dictated that usage with their personnel decisions, likely with intent.
Yeah, the position switch sucks for Melifonwu. It almost feels unfair given the way he closed the 2023 season. It will be up to defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to find creative ways to get him on to the field.
Q: When the rules were changed to allow veterans to be on the practice squad, do you see that as GMs taking the opportunity to redo their thinking on how to utilize these players? — Brandon Kerr
Justin: Only in the sense that it gives a team a place to stash a veteran while they are getting physically and mentally acclimated to a new environment, instead of forcing them into a spot on the 53-man roster before they’re ready, which takes away some game-day flexibility.
Looking at the larger picture, the expansion of practice squads from eight to 16 players, in addition to the allowance of six veterans — practice squad eligibility used to expire after two accrued seasons — has expanded opportunities for hundreds more players to remain employed by NFL teams. That’s been an awesome shift, in my opinion.
Q: Does cap money rollover if you don’t use it? — Paul Van Randwyk
Justin: Yes.
Q: How strong is Bates’ leg? Can he hit from 70+? How big of a weapon could he be? — Nate
Justin: I know I use this term frequently, but Bates’ leg strength is elite. Could he hit from 70 yards? Not with any consistency. But if the conditions were favorable — particularly if he had a tailwind — and the strike was perfect, I’m confident he’d get an occasional effort over the crossbar from that distance.
Would we ever see that in a game? I’d put those odds close to zero. But I don’t think the Lions would hesitate from up to 63 or 64 yards at the end of the half.
How much of a weapon that can be is more complicated. It boils down to how quickly he can improve his consistency and how willing coach Dan Campbell is to try longer kicks — say from the upper 50’s — knowing the consequences in field position if the attempt is missed.
Q: Any chance of you and the Great Wojodomas doing a video recap after a Lion’s game? — Mark Gadigian
Justin: No, his current and my former employer isn’t going to allow that. Be happy it happened, not sad because it’s over.
Q: Would you be OK comparing your initial thoughts about Holmes and Campbell immediately after hire vs. how you feel now? — James Phelan
Justin: Sure, but it’s not that interesting. I knew next to nothing about Holmes when the Lions announced his hire. I did feel the organization was smart for selecting a candidate with a wealth of experience not only scouting college prospects, but running a successful scouting department.
As for Campbell, I had some misconceptions about his demeanor that were quickly erased by the emotion, passion and humility he exhibited in his lengthy opening press conference. It was immediately clear he wasn’t just some hard-nosed "football guy" and he had leadership traits that were going to draw players in, not push them away when times were tough.
As for expectations, I had none. I understood the situation both were walking into, immediately and historically, but I prefer to evaluate individuals based on actions, not preconceived perceptions. Most of my skepticism would have been reserved for the people making the hires because of the franchise’s longstanding inability to land the right leadership. But I also recognized it was important not to judge Sheila Hamp by what her father and mother did before her. The addition of Chris Spielman as an adviser a couple of months earlier didn’t hurt.
As for my thoughts now, Holmes has proved to be every bit the savvy evaluator the Lions hoped. Every GM has their hits and misses, it’s about the success rate. He's been knocking it out of the park, especially in the draft, which is the most important component to successful roster building.
And with Campbell, I’ve been impressed by the consistency of his genuineness. He’s the same person every day, and the respect he shows each person he encounters is admirable. The leadership qualities that showed up on Day 1 remain the same more than three years in, but time has revealed more nuance to those characteristics.
Q: What's the most surprising or unexpected outcome you've experienced since launching DFN? — Jason Stum
Justin: How quickly people have embraced the project. I always had confidence it would work, but I thought the ramp-up would be slower. I set an admittedly modest first-year goal, but had to reset it after beating initial projections in under three weeks.
Wildly, I’m probably a week or two away from beating the adjusted goals.
Q: Of all the roster moves made this week, which one surprised you the most and why? — Jason Harwood
Justin: Probably the release of quarterback Nate Sudfeld. I highlighted some of the reasons why in my immediate reactions to the roster, but nothing team leadership said about the backup situation hinted they were seriously considering Hendon Hooker as the No. 2 to open the season.
Q: Do you think Goff will have accuracy issues with Tim Patrick or Allen Robinson, given what looks like his need for a lot of repetitions to learn and anticipate the new receivers' style and tendencies? — Robert Honeyman
Justin: No more than most quarterbacks. I would actually anticipate the curve would be flattened by both the experience of those veteran receivers and their catch radii. Throwing to the 6-foot-4 Patrick is almost like trying to hit a two-car garage.
I know I cut off some of the editorializing within your question, but you mentioned Goff’s struggles with Williams. Some of that is learning to handle his rare speed, especially on deep shots, but the receiver is equally if not more culpable for some of their chemistry issues because of his early-career inefficiency and lack of precision with his short and intermediate routes.
"Radii" is pretty elite writing (I am a professional editor). Most sports writers would have chickened out and settled for "radius" even when referring to multiple players' catch radii. This is honestly part of why I subscribed 😆.
You edited me! I'm hurt! (no I'm not)
I threw in the extra paragraphs to give you context to my question. Your answer is better than I had expected. Thank you.
The lack of production from DPJ and Marvin Jones last year added to my concerns. I figured a full camp with DPJ would get them on the same page. Clearly, the issue is not with Goff.