Mailbag, Part II: Giovanni Manu, Brad Holmes' projects, TeSlaa as a Jameson Williams replacement and more

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Hopefully, you enjoyed Part I of the mailbag this morning. We’re back with an even longer second batch of questions.

Question: What does the Lions’ current salary cap look like? I've heard differing assessments. — Michael Murphy

Justin: The simple answer is they have a lot of cap space. I haven’t updated my personal spreadsheet to provide a solid estimation, but OverTheCap has it pegged at $35.27 million, which is a good starting point for this conversation.

During the offseason, only the top-51 salaries count toward the cap. Once the regular season starts, it’s all 53 roster spots, the practice squad, and the salaries of all the players on injured lists. That’s several million more in financial obligations.

Now, some of you are probably thinking, ‘Wait, the team has $35 million. What in the hell? Why didn’t Brad Holmes spend more in free agency?’ Or maybe it’s, ‘Um, what’s the hold up with Za’Darius Smith?’ Well, the bigger picture is more complicated.

First of all, the team operates under the idea that it will need about $20 million for additional expenditures during the season. That’s for injury replacements, practice squad elevations and performance/playing time bonuses. Also, you want the wiggle room to add a more significant player at the deadline, like, say, Smith last year.

The larger consideration, and something I wrote about earlier this offseason, is that the Lions are presently over the cap next season.

You should read it. It explains how the team needs to roll over as much as it can to address future bills, most notably the still-to-come extensions for several star players like Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch, Sam Laporta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams.

Question: How long will the Lions give Giovani Manu? They’ve ditched Brodric Martin and Hendon Hooker, who were projects. Is Manu’s freakish athleticism a pass for this year only, or next year, too? — Simon Platford

Question: If we pretended that this was Manu's rookie camp, how would you judge him, and would it change your projection for the future? — Scott Hawkins

Justin: I have a longstanding belief that sports fans care more about what can be than what is. The outsized interest in Giovanni Manu validates that opinion.

I get it, there’s allure to the unknown. And, when it comes to the NFL, a freakishly large and athletic offensive tackle from Canada via Tonga is about as unknown as it gets.

Look, Manu’s developmental arc isn’t comparable to the other players that were mentioned. There was a clear understanding, given the background and level of college competition, that this one would take a bit longer. It’s been 16 months.

Manu improved considerably year-to-year. He did. To answer the second question, he looked like a Day 3 rookie in his second season.

His inaugural camp was a mess, even if that was predictable. This year, he still lagged behind the veteran offensive linemen, but there was undeniable progress. Maybe not enough to justify a game-day role in 2025, but if he takes a similar step forward between now and next offseason, we’re talking about a legitimate swing tackle backup, replacing the Dan Skipper/Jamarco Jones role.

Will that be enough to satisfy fans? Probably not. But a reliable backup offensive tackle, one of the game’s premium positions, is pretty good value for a fourth-round pick. And there would still be growth and upside on the table. What needs to stop is comparing Manu to and expecting him to become Jordan Mailata, the former rugby player who has developed into an All-Pro lineman. That’s an anomaly and shouldn’t be an expectation.

Question: Who do you see taking the next big step in their play? — Brian

Justin: The problem with this answer is I’m going to be regurgitating all the names I’ve been writing about all camp. Imagine if I had an inkling that an under-the-radar player was about to take off and wasn’t reporting what I was seeing. In that case, I’d be doing a disservice to the audience.

But since you asked, I’ll pretend you’ve not read anything all offseason and the information is new to you.

Jameson Williams: He closed camp with some drop issues that he’ll need to clean up, but the fourth-year receiver has taken his route running to new levels this offseason. Having more variety with his tree, including a lethal comeback route, should further unlock the speedster’s production potential.

Christian Mahogany: There were legitimate sample-size questions regarding how much we could reasonably glean from his two starts as a rookie. Well, I’d contend Mahogany was the most consistent lineman in this year’s camp.

Terrion Arnold: If the number of pass breakups he's had the past six weeks is any indication, last year’s first-round pick is primed to make a massive second-year jump. He cleaned up his early-season penalty issues in the second half of the 2024 campaign. Now it’s time to start snagging interceptions.

Question: Did you think the Lions might trade Tim Patrick? —Paul Van Randwyk

Justin: As you may remember from my roster assessment, I dropped Patrick from the lock column late in camp. With about a week to go, I put his odds of making the team at 85%, drawing parallels to how Marvin Jones' performance had sharply declined during his final year with the Lions.

Did I believe that would lead to trade? Not really. Mostly because I wasn’t sure if a team would be willing to give up a draft asset for an aging receiver who had a number of articles written about his struggles. It wasn't a secret.

Still, given how many teams were reportedly looking for veteran help at the position, it's not shocking the Lions found a taker. Apparently, there were multiple suitors, so being able to net a sixth-rounder instead of a seventh was more interesting.

Question: Do you have a guess as to why Dan Skipper or his agent leaked his release a day early? — Jeff Guynn

Justin: Skipper told me directly. I'm sharing that because it wasn't an off-the-record conversation. I didn’t ask him why, because it didn’t feel like a relevant question. However, when I launched this publication, he was one of several players and Lions staffers who took the time to stop me and offer some positive feedback about the decision. That dialogue opened the door for me to suggest our ice bath interview.

Even before any of that, we’ve been having good, honest conversations in the locker room for years. I’ve enjoyed covering Skipper, one of many players I can say that about, both current and past.

I would like to believe I’ve cultivated strong professional respect with a number of members in the organization, from ownership down to the players. Sometimes, being able to break news is the way that respect pays off, even if I take zero joy in being the first to report a player has lost their job.

Question: Have any of Brad Holmes’ project draft picks ever amounted to anything of value? — Tim Harding

Justin: I know I answered this directly in the chat, but yes, several.

Kerby Joseph was a converted receiver and one-year starting safety at Illinois. Now, he’s an All-Pro. That's the epitome of a project working out in unimaginably successful ways.

Then there’s Malcolm Rodriguez. Here’s what Kelvin Sheppard told me in 2023: “Most of his time at Oklahoma State, he's spitting out in the slot, like an overhang. Then you look at his stature, he's 5-11, 225, short arms. How is that going to translate to the NFL?”

Pretty damn well, actually. Rodriguez is the first linebacker off the bench, but he's more than capable when asked to start. Plus, he's stellar on special teams. It doesn’t matter how productive he was in college; his role and body type didn't translate. That's a project.

Same with Derrick Barnes, a college edge rusher. It took a minute, but he’s a solid NFL linebacker now who just earned a hefty extension, validating how the team feels about his development and production.

Even guys like James Houston delivered more than could have reasonably been expected, even if it didn’t work out long-term. And we’re not counting guys who have wildly outperformed their draft slots, like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mahogany.

People need to stop being so fixated on Brodric Martin. Not every pick works out. Holmes’ hit rate is wild.

Question: What qualities differentiate TeSlaa from Jamo? Is he Jamo's replacement for cap purposes in 2026 and beyond? — Bill Ervin

Justin: Bill, the long-term view is an astute assessment. I fully agree that while we’ve been fixated on TeSlaa as Patrick’s replacement, there is a bigger-picture view where the rookie is the solution to not being able to afford an extension for Williams. That's going to push north of $30 million per year if he delivers on expectations and tops 1,000 yards again.

It isn't easy to compare the two, athletically, since Williams’ ACL tear prevented him from participating in pre-draft testing. TeSlaa has jets, running a 4.43 40-yard dash. However, the eye test tells me Williams is probably closer to 4.3. His speed and acceleration are on a different level.

Williams is also more advanced in some of the finer details of the position, given his experience. However, TeSlaa is picking things up quickly, has great body control and hands, and could catch up to Williams in two years, when the team could be looking to swap from one for the other.

One thing that should be acknowledged is that both have tremendous football character. Williams and TeSlaa are both passionate about the game and go all out on every assignment, including blocking.

Question: What is the biggest risk to this team not achieving its goals? — Christopher Gandy

Justin: When you fall short, you make changes, and with every change, there’s an opportunity to take a step forward or a step back.

As noted above, Holmes has been great in the draft. Well, what happens if he has a couple of classes that don’t meet or exceed expectations? What happens when the Lions have to part with some of the stars they developed because they can’t fit them all under the cap? What if the retooled offensive line, which might also lose Taylor Decker in a year or two, is never as good as it was last year?

The culture is as strong as it’s ever been in Detroit. You have a smart GM and a great coach who gets the most out of his players, individually and collectively. They are built for sustained success, even if there are no guarantees, year-to-year.

But sustained success — division titles and playoff appearances — doesn’t guarantee a Super Bowl. If this core doesn’t win one, I’m sure we’ll be talking about it the same way we did when the Tigers fell short with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera and company. That will be an era remembered fondly, but marred by the lack of a title.

Question: So, no third-string quarterback, in case of emergency? — Craig Mirek

Justin: Presently, no. But they didn’t technically have an emergency quarterback, in the traditional sense, until late last season. What they did have was a practice squad QB in Jake Fromm, but he wasn’t an option on game days.

I expect the Lions will eventually add a practice squad QB. It’s not pressing, and if they ever had to play in a game, well, I hate to tell you, that one is probably a lost cause.

The role of a third-stringer is the work they do Monday through Saturday, prepping the starter and backup for Sunday. It’s what they provide in the meeting room and as an extra set of eyes scouting the upcoming opponent. They don’t even run the scout team. That task usually falls to the backup.

With two former NFL quarterbacks coaching the position in Mark Brunell and Marques Tuiasosopo, the Lions have enough experience to get by, from a preparation perspective, with just two for the time being.

And if Jared Goff and Kyle Allen both have to exit a game, it should be fun watching David Montgomery run the wildcat for the rest of that afternoon. (That's not a confirmed strategy, just a loose expectation based on what I know about the roster.)

Question: Do you believe Jared Goff will ever have a legitimate shot at winning league MVP? Or will his being a traditional pocket passer prevent that in a league where Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen currently rule the roost? — Andrew Keck

Justin: Yeah, there’s a legitimate shot, but it’s going to require some guady numbers. Goff isn’t likely to garner serious consideration without throwing for more than 5,000 yards, 40 touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions.

That's not out of the realm of possibility with the weapons he has around him and the fact that he attempted significantly fewer passes in 2024. If he were 15% more productive than he was a year ago, you’re talking 5,300 yards and 42 or 43 touchdowns. The final step would be trimming the interceptions. He’d need to be closer to the seven he tossed in 2022 than the dozen he had each of the past two years.

Post that stat line, win the NFC North again, and yeah, he’s going to be a front-runner.

Question: There was some discussion early in training camp about the Lions running two-back packages during the season. Is that still something you think they’ll do and who would the backs be? — Andrew Tomlinson

Justin: Yeah, I think they’ll do it, because offensive coordinator John Morton said they’ll do it. As he noted, and I’m paraphrasing, you want to get your best players on the field as much as possible.

The Lions ran two-back looks last year, too. And the year before that and the year before that. It’s always baked into the scheme, to a degree. This is really a volume discussion. They’ve never leaned on it heavily, and with so many offensive weapons, I’m not sure you’ll rarely see it more than a handful of times in any given game plan.

When they do it, it will primarily be David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs sharing the field. However, there’s some potential with a Gibbs/Sione Vaki look, as well.