Resetting Detroit Lions' playoff picture heading into final four games of the 2024 season

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Allen Park — The Detroit Lions are going to continue to focus on the next game — what they’ll dub the most important game on the schedule — but as outside observers, we’re permitted to take a broader look at the remainder of the regular season and how the postseason picture is developing.

Let’s immediately state the obvious: At 12-1, if the Lions win out, they’ll earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, securing both a first-round bye and home-field advantage up to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

But despite Detroit's best start through 13 games in franchise history, the conference’s top seed is far from secure, driving home why the team can’t lose focus, even for a moment. The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are both nipping at the Lions’ heels, putting them not only at risk of losing their No. 1 seeding but also the NFC North. The latter would be the more serious blow. While it would sting to miss out on the bye week, losing the division would likely result in zero playoff games at Ford Field.

Technically, the Lions could still finish with the first, second, fifth, sixth or seventh seed in the NFC.

Let’s establish what each scenario looks like:

Current NFC standings

1. Lions — 12-1*

2. Eagles — 11-2*

3. Seahawks — 8-5 (NFC West leaders)

4. Buccaneers — 7-6 (NFC South leaders)

5. Vikings — 11-2

6. Packers — 9-4

7. Commanders — 8-5

8. Rams — 7-6

9. Falcons — 6-7

10. Cardinals — 6-7

* Clinched a playoff berth

No. 1 seed

As noted, the easiest path to secure the top seed is to win out. But if there’s a game the Lions can afford to drop, it’s this Sunday’s home game against Buffalo. Beyond the overall record, a loss to the AFC opponent at this stage won't reasonably factor into tie-breaking scenarios with the Eagles or Vikings.

Let’s start with the Eagles. Here are the relevant tie-breaking steps when two teams not in the same division finish with identical records.

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum four).

4. Strength of victory in all games.

5. Strength of schedule in all games.

These teams didn’t play head-to-head, while the Lions currently hold a one-game advantage in conference record. Moving to common games, with a win over Dallas in Week 17, the Eagles would match the Lions’ record in those contests. But Detroit currently holds a massive edge in strength of victory; a 22-win difference the Eagles are unlikely to make up even if they beat the 10-3 Steelers this week, paired with a Lions’ loss to the Bills.

If the Eagles want to overtake the Lions, they’ll likely need to run the table, paired with a pair of losses for the current conference leader.

As for the Vikings, who play the Bears, Seahawks and Packers in the next three weeks, they could have an opportunity to draw even with the Lions in the teams’ season finale.

The tie-breaker setup within a division is slightly different.

1. Head-to-head

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory in all games.

6. Strength of schedule in all games

A Vikings’ win in Week 18 would obviously split the season series and potentially match the teams’ division records. The Lions currently hold a one-game edge in that department.

Common games still hang in the balance. The Vikings would move to 11-1 in those games with wins each of the next three weeks. The Lions are undefeated against overlapping opponents, but still have remaining matchups against a pair of common foes, Chicago and San Francisco, prior to Week 18.

Detroit also holds a one-game edge in conference record, but that could similarly evaporate with a loss to San Francisco.

If it does come down to the strength of victory tie-breaker, the Lions hold a massive advantage of 23 victories that would be extremely difficult for the Vikings to close.

Like the Eagles, the best case for the Vikings is to win out and hope the Lions lose a second game.

No. 2 seed

The Lions would earn the second seed in the conference if they win the NFC North but can’t fend off the Eagles.

There’s no realistic threat of dropping to the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, reserved for the conference’s two other division winners. The NFC South leader, Tampa Bay, already has six losses. Meanwhile, NFC West-leading Seattle could finish with an identical 12-5 record if they win out and the Lions lose their remaining games, but the Lions hold the head-to-head tie-breaker after a 42-29 win in Week 4.

No. 5 seed or No. 6 seed

The Lions would almost certainly land at No. 5 if they surrendered the NFC North to the Vikings because division winners earn the top four seeds. There’s still a narrow pathway for the Packers to pass the Lions (and the Vikings) in the standings, but they’d need to win out with the Lions losing four straight to negate Detroit’s head-to-head tie-breaker after sweeping the season series.

No. 7 seed

The least probable scenario would see the Lions losing their remaining four contests, the Eagles and Vikings each winning at least two of their remaining games, the Packers winning out, and the Washington Commanders winning out. In this hypothetical, Washington would earn a seeding tie-breaker for having a better conference record.