I think it is safe to assume Z is back. Hutch, Davenport and Z is a good trio foundation for the edges.
I’m more concerned with what we do in the middle with both defense and offensive lines. That’s been our strength in the past and needs to be in the future. It’s who we are; run and stop the run. We lost two pro bowlers on offense interior and one on defense interior until Thanksgiving. We are betting a lot on young talent to replace pro bowl talent.
$2.5 million contract with $2 million in incentives on a prove it contract is totally reasonable. And, I'm guessing Smith will come back on an incentive Laden deal, because a) injuries are an expectation, and b) he smells a ring on a team with a great coaching staff and front office.
MD is getting paid approximately what he is worth. PFF objectively graded him at 53.1 last year (despite the continued hype)--165th of 211 Edge Players.
The fact that people are still trying to sell us on his potential after 7 seasons in the league is ridiculous--just like buying the Bridge that's for Sale at a discounted price.
Better to gamble on proven talent (Trey/Z), or high potential talent (Ahmed H.).
I’m pretty excited to see what Davenport can do if he can play majority of the games. He was first round pick for a reason and sounds like he’s in the best shape of his life. I still bring Z in for depth and insurance. If we’re competing for a SB we’ve got to be able to get pressure and drive stopping sacks.
I've been on record saying the city is gonna owe marcus an apology when it's all said and done..have absolutely zero concern about a fluke bicep injury
People's issue isn't the bicep injury in isolation. It's the bicep following the 63 games in 5yrs for the saints and 4 games for Vikings before signing with lions. Even DC started that it's not a concern on skill but availability. They've all been different injuries, so let's hope he can get over the injury bug.
Good article Justin. This article lead to me looking up the video of the play that lead to his injury, which inevitably lead to articles about the play being dirty. What’s your take on the dirtiness of the play? Normal football move or possibly malice intent? Any inside from the player or do teammates have an opinion on this you can share?
My take is it's normal. But since so many asked, I directly asked Marcus Davenport, who was taken aback by the suggestion that it was dirty. I wrote about it immediately after he gave me an answer.
I also asked a couple of retired players about it shortly after it happened. Each one said, normal football play.
I also agree with the Lions on this. I don’t really understand the over the top interest in Z given the price vs Marcus. Marcus is better so you can’t pay the backup more than the starter.
It's known as depth! This hurt the Team last season and it could happen again this Season. Can always trade him to a desperate team if the depth is good to go later on.
It's known as depth! This hurt the Team last season and it could happen again this Season. Can always trade him to a desperate team if the depth is good to go later on.
While I do get the confidence that the front office has, I can also understand the "fool me once" attitude fans are taking. If you felt like MD had a really good chance of playing most of the season, I think we'd be fine without Z. But Smith came in midseason and was productive, while MD sat on IR. I don't thin it's unreasonable that fans are asking for a guy who has proven is availability vs a guy who has a massive history with injuries.
Fair enough. I would just refer you to the first comment made for this article in regard to Marcus's injuries. Also ask if Z's production measured up against his cap hit? I grant you he has a lot of energy but also thought he ran himself out of plays from time to time. Bottom line is what I indicated before, do you pay a backup more than the starter because I think it's clear Marcus is the better player. I guess camp will answer that question though.
Davenport is getting paid less because he has barely played any games. If you sign Z but Davenport stays healthy, then I don't think the question of who's getting paid more factors in. Like I guess it's a "bad look" for the FO if they end up bringing in a guy (Z) for more money and he plays less, but really what that would mean is that they got an *insane* value on Davenport. You're paying a rotational guy rotational money, and then if you also happen to get starter production out of a guy you're paying backup money to, all the better!
I think you could probably bet a year's salary that, if the Lions were to sign Davenport and Smith, you are not getting 17 games out of BOTH of them, along with no time missed for Hutch and Paschal. Ahmed isn't playing starter snaps. You're going to need guys to fill in. You've got Muhammad and some other PS-level guys that can take snaps but are not going to be impact players.
It's just such a dice roll to say "Davenport is better and cheaper, so we don't need Smith." Like if Davenport stays healthy, the value there is insane. But it really isn't a question of if he misses time, just a matter of how much. If they can get Z relatively cheaply (remains to be seen) I just think that's such a huge safety net PLUS a better guy to put in rotation.
Thanks Justin for the article. I’m with Brad on this one.
I think it’s a little disrespectful to Marcus Davenport to assume he’s playing less than half a season. While he played a total of 6 games the last two seasons, he played at least 11 games his first five seasons. Edges don’t usually see a huge drop off before they’re 30, so I’m giving him a 71.4% chance to play 11 games or more. And he’s great when he’s on the field. 😁
Over his career he’s played in 59.8% of possible games, including 4/6 playoff games. That’s 10.16 games per regular season. I know I’m being optimistic, but I also think there is some recency bias in how a lot of fans and some media are writing him off.
Last year’s injury was especially freaky, when Paris Johnson Jr. just karate chopped his elbow when his arm was at full extension. (A move that still looks to me like a deliberate attempt to injure and injure badly.)
"Last year’s injury was especially freaky, when Paris Johnson Jr. just karate chopped his elbow when his arm was at full extension. (A move that still looks to me like a deliberate attempt to injure and injure badly.)"
I haven't scrutinized the play in question, yet karate chopping your opponent's arm is a common tactic among both OL and DL players. I imagine it was a deliberate attempt by Paris to reset the battle against Davenport.
Yeah people really underestimate how violent line play is because they are usually focusing on the skill positions, and the way the game is shot doesn't highlight the line at all. Plus I believe Justin asked Davenport directly if he thought it was dirty and Davenport quickly shut that down, saying it was just bad luck on a routine play.
I think it is safe to assume Z is back. Hutch, Davenport and Z is a good trio foundation for the edges.
I’m more concerned with what we do in the middle with both defense and offensive lines. That’s been our strength in the past and needs to be in the future. It’s who we are; run and stop the run. We lost two pro bowlers on offense interior and one on defense interior until Thanksgiving. We are betting a lot on young talent to replace pro bowl talent.
$2.5 million contract with $2 million in incentives on a prove it contract is totally reasonable. And, I'm guessing Smith will come back on an incentive Laden deal, because a) injuries are an expectation, and b) he smells a ring on a team with a great coaching staff and front office.
Great title!
Believe in more than I do, that's a pretty low bar.
Has this ever worked, has a player that battled injuries his entire career turned it around at the age of 29, I can't think of one.
I am totally onboard with the signing in a swing for the fences way, but I can't say with a straight face this is my starting DE this year.
I predict that Davenport stays healthy this year and wins back the support of Lion's fans just like Levi did last year.
This is a prove it league!!!
MD is getting paid approximately what he is worth. PFF objectively graded him at 53.1 last year (despite the continued hype)--165th of 211 Edge Players.
The fact that people are still trying to sell us on his potential after 7 seasons in the league is ridiculous--just like buying the Bridge that's for Sale at a discounted price.
Better to gamble on proven talent (Trey/Z), or high potential talent (Ahmed H.).
I’m pretty excited to see what Davenport can do if he can play majority of the games. He was first round pick for a reason and sounds like he’s in the best shape of his life. I still bring Z in for depth and insurance. If we’re competing for a SB we’ve got to be able to get pressure and drive stopping sacks.
Sooner or later, Marcus has got to have a healthy season. The odds are definitely with him and if he does, I think he’ll show well.
I've been on record saying the city is gonna owe marcus an apology when it's all said and done..have absolutely zero concern about a fluke bicep injury
People's issue isn't the bicep injury in isolation. It's the bicep following the 63 games in 5yrs for the saints and 4 games for Vikings before signing with lions. Even DC started that it's not a concern on skill but availability. They've all been different injuries, so let's hope he can get over the injury bug.
Good article Justin. This article lead to me looking up the video of the play that lead to his injury, which inevitably lead to articles about the play being dirty. What’s your take on the dirtiness of the play? Normal football move or possibly malice intent? Any inside from the player or do teammates have an opinion on this you can share?
My take is it's normal. But since so many asked, I directly asked Marcus Davenport, who was taken aback by the suggestion that it was dirty. I wrote about it immediately after he gave me an answer.
I also asked a couple of retired players about it shortly after it happened. Each one said, normal football play.
Thanks for the insight, I thought I remembered you following up on it but I can’t remember what I ate for dinner tonight…
I also agree with the Lions on this. I don’t really understand the over the top interest in Z given the price vs Marcus. Marcus is better so you can’t pay the backup more than the starter.
It's known as depth! This hurt the Team last season and it could happen again this Season. Can always trade him to a desperate team if the depth is good to go later on.
It's known as depth! This hurt the Team last season and it could happen again this Season. Can always trade him to a desperate team if the depth is good to go later on.
While I do get the confidence that the front office has, I can also understand the "fool me once" attitude fans are taking. If you felt like MD had a really good chance of playing most of the season, I think we'd be fine without Z. But Smith came in midseason and was productive, while MD sat on IR. I don't thin it's unreasonable that fans are asking for a guy who has proven is availability vs a guy who has a massive history with injuries.
Fair enough. I would just refer you to the first comment made for this article in regard to Marcus's injuries. Also ask if Z's production measured up against his cap hit? I grant you he has a lot of energy but also thought he ran himself out of plays from time to time. Bottom line is what I indicated before, do you pay a backup more than the starter because I think it's clear Marcus is the better player. I guess camp will answer that question though.
Davenport is getting paid less because he has barely played any games. If you sign Z but Davenport stays healthy, then I don't think the question of who's getting paid more factors in. Like I guess it's a "bad look" for the FO if they end up bringing in a guy (Z) for more money and he plays less, but really what that would mean is that they got an *insane* value on Davenport. You're paying a rotational guy rotational money, and then if you also happen to get starter production out of a guy you're paying backup money to, all the better!
I think you could probably bet a year's salary that, if the Lions were to sign Davenport and Smith, you are not getting 17 games out of BOTH of them, along with no time missed for Hutch and Paschal. Ahmed isn't playing starter snaps. You're going to need guys to fill in. You've got Muhammad and some other PS-level guys that can take snaps but are not going to be impact players.
It's just such a dice roll to say "Davenport is better and cheaper, so we don't need Smith." Like if Davenport stays healthy, the value there is insane. But it really isn't a question of if he misses time, just a matter of how much. If they can get Z relatively cheaply (remains to be seen) I just think that's such a huge safety net PLUS a better guy to put in rotation.
Thanks Justin for the article. I’m with Brad on this one.
I think it’s a little disrespectful to Marcus Davenport to assume he’s playing less than half a season. While he played a total of 6 games the last two seasons, he played at least 11 games his first five seasons. Edges don’t usually see a huge drop off before they’re 30, so I’m giving him a 71.4% chance to play 11 games or more. And he’s great when he’s on the field. 😁
Over his career he’s played in 59.8% of possible games, including 4/6 playoff games. That’s 10.16 games per regular season. I know I’m being optimistic, but I also think there is some recency bias in how a lot of fans and some media are writing him off.
Last year’s injury was especially freaky, when Paris Johnson Jr. just karate chopped his elbow when his arm was at full extension. (A move that still looks to me like a deliberate attempt to injure and injure badly.)
"Last year’s injury was especially freaky, when Paris Johnson Jr. just karate chopped his elbow when his arm was at full extension. (A move that still looks to me like a deliberate attempt to injure and injure badly.)"
I haven't scrutinized the play in question, yet karate chopping your opponent's arm is a common tactic among both OL and DL players. I imagine it was a deliberate attempt by Paris to reset the battle against Davenport.
Yeah people really underestimate how violent line play is because they are usually focusing on the skill positions, and the way the game is shot doesn't highlight the line at all. Plus I believe Justin asked Davenport directly if he thought it was dirty and Davenport quickly shut that down, saying it was just bad luck on a routine play.
Maybe so…people can judge for themselves. This is the best video I’ve found: https://youtu.be/vS7HO_xQBag?si=YOUI-t43tOpfXgV8