Season opener is tomorrow, let’s check the mailbox.
Question: What’s your biggest concern for the offense and defense? — Richard Moore
Justin: I don’t think they’ve really changed over the course of the offseason.
Offensively, it’s all about protecting quarterback Jared Goff. Like most pocket passers, his efficiency declines sharply when pressured, and the shortest path to allowing pressure, the interior of the offensive line, underwent a makeover this offseason.
On top of the makeover, the depth is shaky. That’s not commentary reserved for the Lions. Offensive line depth is typically shaky across the league. It matters because both Graham Glasgow and rookie Tate Ratledge have had some injury issues over the past couple of years. If one is removed from the equation, my confidence level drops. Take two off the field, it's potentially a mess.
I think we’ve seen our fair share of o-line injuries around these parts. At times in recent memory, it’s been a revolving door up front. But if the group stays relatively healthy, it should be OK after they establish chemistry through reps.
Defensively, surprise, surprise, it’s edge depth. I feel pretty good about the front with a healthy Marcus Davenport. Still, skepticism is merited, and the Lions don’t appear to have enough depth to cover a long-term absence.
Listen, I like Al-Quadian Muhammad more than most after what he provided in the absence of Aidan Hutchinson and Davenport last season. But the Lions don’t have any established pocket disruption behind Muhammad, and I’m including the eventual return of Josh Paschal.
Pair that with a hampered interior rush connected to the absences of Alim McNeill and Levi Onwuzurike, and the team is going to be overly reliant on Hutchinson to generate pressure without the help of blitzing if Davenport's durability is an issue once again.
Question: Do you think the offensive game plan will be to exploit a weaker defensive line against the run without Kenny Clark? And do you see us starting with David Montgomery early to soften them up inside, then going to Jahmyr Gibbs on the second possession, much like last year? — Ryan Kommick
Justin: No matter how much we observed during camp practices, we don’t know how first-year offensive coordinator John Morton might adjust the team's personnel usage compared to last season. It felt as if things were tracking toward a backfield split that favored Gibbs a little more than 2024's near-ever split. Still, there are other reasons they could have leaned more heavily on the younger back, who is still working on developing some aspects of his game.
The Lions are going to try to establish the run, regardless of the opponent. However, I think there’s been too much made of Clark’s departure altering the equation significantly. He wasn’t particularly good against the run last year, and the Packers were steady defending against it, whether he was on the field or not.
Green Bay finished third in the NFL, allowing 4.0 yards per carry in 2024. When Clark was on the field, it was 4.0 yards per carry. When he was off the field, it was 4.1, which would be tied for the fourth-best rate in the league.
In two games against the Lions, Detroit averaged 3.9 and 3.3 yards, with success rates of 43% and 34%. That’s scheme and overall execution more than any one player, especially a non-dominant one like Clark was last season.
Question: If you had to choose one player to keep an eye on for Sunday, who would it be? — Tyler Sauer
Justin: That approach would make for a pretty unusual game story. Let me phrase it like this: The guy I’m most interested in seeing is cornerback Terrion Arnold.
He was awesome during camp, breaking up passes at a rate that drove home why the Lions traded up to get him in the first round a year ago. If he’s taken as big a developmental jump as we’re assuming based on practice results, Detroit’s secondary could be special.
Question: How does the communication circle work with John Morton in the press box? — Matt
Justin: The coaching staff is on headsets, communicating throughout the game. Those headsets obviously have multiple channels to avoid crosstalk between the offense and defense.
During snaps, Morton will have a direct line to Goff. To be clear, that’s a one-way line, with the coach able to talk to the player until it shuts off with 15 seconds on the play clock.
I’m not certain if Morton and Goff talk directly from the sidelines, or if passing game coordinator David Shaw, who is on the headset channel with Morton, will need to be a relay between the two. It should be noted that Morton and Shaw have worked together for years and are extremely close, so the messaging and coaching points should be consistent.
Question: It's probably been covered somewhere, especially with the draft having just been in Green Bay, but what is the travel like in and out for an away game with the Packers compared to other places? — Jacob Powers
Question: What's the first thing you plan to do when you land in Green Bay? — Joe Ricciardi
Justin: Green Bay is the NFL’s smallest market. The city has a population of barely more than 100,000 and an airport with only 12 gates. That makes it super easy to get in and get out of town.
With that, there’s less to do around the area. It’s like covering a game in Canton or Livonia, Michigan, only a little more spread out — 55 square miles to 35 square miles, approximately.
It should also be noted that reporters rarely fly into and stay in Green Bay. The hotel prices can get absurd on an NFL Sunday because of limited lodging. We’re talking $600+ per night for a Courtyard-level hotel. The go-to play is to fly into Appleton, which is 30 miles south, with an even smaller airport.
There's occasionally someone who will fly into and stay in Milwaukee. I'm not interested in nearly four hours of commuting on a game day, which is often 10 or 11 hours of work.
This year, I scored a very reasonably priced Airbnb, so I will be in Green Bay. In terms of the first thing I do, it depends on the time I arrive and the time of year. It looks like it’s going to be nice out, so I might pack some discs in my carry-on and try to get in a round of disc golf, find a good spot for dinner, before settling in for some last-minute writing with college football playing in the background.
On most trips, I prefer to enjoy a meal with colleagues or a friend, if I have one in the town I’m visiting. This trip is shaping up to be a solo adventure.
Question: If you were told Green Bay was getting Parsons for two first-rounders and one Packers starter, which player would you want off the Packers? Would it have been Kenny Clark? — David Cords
Justin: If I’m Dallas, I’m asking for Zach Tom, one of the league’s more underrated right tackles, who is just 26 years old. Defensively, it’s either safety Xavier McKinney or linebacker Edgerinn Cooper, because of age, more than anything.
If you’re asking which player being off the roster would have been most beneficial to the Lions, it would probably be Josh Jacobs, Elgton Jenkins or McKinney.
Question: Two-parter: Do the Lions run the ball more or less under Morton than Johnson? And what do you think will look different in the pass game? — Al Stahl
Justin: Again, it’s a lot of guesswork here. Still, I think it’s difficult to suggest the Lions run more under Morton after the team ranked eighth in the league last year at 47%, with most of the offenses ahead of them having a dual-threat quarterback (Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as examples).
Add in a tough slate of games, where the Lions figure to be engaged in more tight contests, and it only makes sense that they’d throw the ball more.
In terms of what will look different, I anticipate a little more screen usage — backs, receivers and tight ends — as well as a more varied route tree for Jameson Williams, which will include more patterns coming back to the cornerback than previous years.
Additionally, whether it’s Kalif Raymond or rookie Isaac TeSlaa, we should see a few more vertical shots to that third receiver, contrasted against more of the possession looks that went to Tim Patrick a year ago.
Question: Will our new interior offensive line be stronger at run blocking or pass blocking? And is Tate Ratledge truly ready? — Julian Swearengin
Justin: I’d lean pass protection. To be clear, Christian Mahogany is a mauler. Still, both are pretty good at keeping the quarterback upright, and I will comfortably say that was Ratledge’s strength coming out of Georgia. He uses his hands really well and consistently showed an ability to re-anchor when he was initially knocked back during camp practices.
Few rookies are “truly” ready for the next level. Ratledge is undoubtedly the best option on the roster to flesh out the starting five. Plus, he has the physical and mental maturity to adapt quickly to the league. Still, you should expect some bumps in the road when he gets matched up against some high-end interior linemen, particularly those with experience.
Even Frank Ragnow had some rough patches as a rookie, and he was a better prospect than Ratledge.
Question: Jared Goff finished sixth in QBR last year behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels and Jordan Love. In his age-31 season, where do you see Goff in his career arc? Which metrics would you use, and how many years could we expect him to play at this high level? — Jacob Schans
Justin: Goff is performing at his peak, and as long as he avoids injury, whether one significant one or the accumulation of several nagging concerns from taking too many hits, you should reasonably expect another 4-6 years of high-quality football.
I don’t weigh Goff against other quarterbacks using QBR, given that metric factors in rushing contributions. He’ll never stack up against Jackson, Allen or Daniels in that area.
I’m looking at passing efficiency metrics to evaluate a QB like Goff. How many yards per attempt? What’s the interception rate? I also like Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion percentage, which removes things like drops from the equation to better show a passer’s accuracy.
Another one from the publication is turnover-worthy plays, which better demonstrates decision-making, since defenders drop passes, too, and sometimes your teammate recovers the fumble you put on the ground.
Question: After Za’Darius Smith signed with the Eagles, are there any other edge free agents worth signing? — Jon Annett
Justin: In September? I mean, there are a few names out there, although it’s difficult to say how much gas is left in the tank. Probably the biggest name available is Jadeveon Clowney. The former No. 1 pick has bounced around the league the past decade, but he still provided 44 pressures and 5.5 sacks in 14 games for the Panthers last season.
Other less-sexy names include Carl Lawson, Clelin Ferrell, Shaquil Barrett, Preston Smith and DeMarcus Walker.
Question: (Summarizing a much longer question) What should we expect from Derrick Barnes? — Stefan Spurlock
Justin: The number of Barnes questions the past week, whether in the chat, comments on other stories, social media and email, has been unusual. I mentioned the sudden surge in curiosity to him when we walked past each other in the locker room the other day.
I’ve said similar things in a few places, but let me consolidate the answer in this space. It can be tough to get a feel for a linebacker during camp practices. The position plays with a lot of nuance, often requiring film study to better evaluate impact. That was especially true in Barnes’ case last year, where his subtle positioning on plays was exceptional, creating opportunities for teammates even when he was rarely showing up in the stat sheet.
In 2024, the Lions were playing Barnes more along the line of scrimmage as part of five-man fronts. This year, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has reverted his prize pupil to working more off the ball.
Barnes’ workload will be interesting. Early last season, it was tracking around 80%, countering the league’s heavy usage of nickel personnel. Yet, while Barnes was out with his knee injury, Amik Robertson gained a lot of trust from the coaching staff. I imagine they’ll be in nickel more frequently this season, even if it’s still a lower rate than the rest of the league.
I don’t expect Barnes to be a go-to in two-linebacker looks. Sure, that might be the play sometimes, but Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone still look to be the preferred pairing in those situations.
Barnes has looked fine with his movement skills throughout camp. I don’t think you’ll see much rust. What you should see is more usage as a blitzer, which I believe is a better use of his ability to affect the pocket. He has outstanding size and athleticism, but not the length or pass-rushing repertoire to regularly win off the edge.
Let's get a solid win in GB to put me in a positive mood to start the season.
What's the impact of Green Bay losing not just Kenny Clark, but T.J. Slayton?